Louisiana State at West Virginia Betting pick | 2011-09-24

NCAA Football

2011-09-24 - Louisiana State at West Virginia

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Louisiana State Tigers @ West Virginia Mountaineers
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

Louisiana State (3-0) have opened the season in impressive fashion and are one of the leading contenders for the National Championship game, but they will need to continue that form and rubber stamp their record by winning a tough game at the West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0).

The Tigers come into this game with plenty of confidence having already knocked off Oregon and Mississippi State, and it is the Defense that has really shown up and played in the early weeks of the season.

The Defense was so impressive in limiting Mississippi State last week that Brandon Taylor (S) believes the Mountaineers should not be scoring on them this week, despite the fact West Virginia are ranked at 15th in the nation when it comes to scoring Offense.

LSU will be playing their 3rd ranked team of the season already, but this will hold no fear after their early performances. LSU will be looking to build on their streak where they have won 35 straight against non-Conference teams, although West Virginia are 16-1 in their last 17 games at home.

West Virginia scored 37 points in Maryland to record their 3rd consecutive victory of 2011, but there were some concerns that the Offense were limited in the 2nd half of that game. They only scored a FG in the final 22 minutes of the game as Maryland made the adjustments and that could be a problem against LSU who rank 6th in the nation in total Defense and have already recorded 31 tackles for a loss in 3 games.

The biggest issue for LSU at the beginning of the season was how they were going to cope without their suspended QB Jordan Jefferson, but Jarrett Lee has come in and exceeded expectations. Lee is helped by a strong rushing game, but he has managed the games well so far, all that Les Miles would have wanted from his QB.

Russell Shepard (WR) was an expected starter for LSU and is now back with the team having been suspended by the NCAA for the first 3 games. Brad Wing (P) is another expected back this week having missed the last 2 games with an injury, but Chris Faulk (LT) is questionable having injured his leg last week against Mississippi State.

Head to Head

These two teams met in Louisiana last season in their first meeting, a game that LSU won 20-14.

On that occasion, the Tigers shut down the Mountaineers Offense, holding them to under 175 total yards.

West Virginia are 1-2 against the spread this season, LSU are 2-1.

Other Interesting Notes

West Virginia are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

However, WVU are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games when they are the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record on the road.

LSU are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite.

Prediction

This is another big test for Louisiana State as they go on the road to face a tough opponent with plenty of confidence, but it is one I think they will pass and improve their credentials as a National Championship player.

The Defense for LSU looks like it has the potential to becoming one of the special ones in College Football and they have shown they are capable of holding down powerful Offenses as they did to the Mississippi State team last week.

West Virginia have to avoid becoming predictable and that is where I think LSU will win out by making them a one-dimensional Offense that will eventually allow the Defense to create turnovers and short fields for their own Offense.

I think this game will be close for a while, but I eventually think the LSU Defense will come out on top of their battle with the Mountaineers' Offense and pull away for the win and cover.