NCAA Football
2011-09-24 - Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kick Off 10:15pm ET
3:15am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Oregon Ducks (2-1) open their Pac-12 season schedule as they face the Arizona Wildcats (1-2) in Tucson knowing their opponents are already 0-1 in Conference play and have been torched by Stanford and Oklahoma State, two schools that Oregon think they can match.
Oregon had a tough start to the season when they were put down to play LSU and that loss has effectively put pay to their chances of playing in the National Championship game for a 2nd consecutive season unless they can run the table from now.
The win over Missouri State last week behind LaMichael James' 3 TDs and 204 yards on the ground has shown the Ducks are still one of the best College teams and it is no surprise to see they are still ranked in the top 10 of the AP polls.
Arizona have really struggled due to their inability to get things going on the ground, although they have had an extremely tough schedule in the early stages of the season which will see them face their 3rd top 10 ranked team in a row.
Nick Foles has been solid at QB with 7 TD passes and 0 Interceptions thrown, but they are gaining just 2.6 yards per carry on the ground and that means Foles is too often in 3rd and long positions. The Wildcats will be looking on with envy at the rushing attack of the Ducks that is 2nd in the nation.
The biggest story outside of the game for Oregon is the fact they have been notified that the NCAA will be investigating how the school used recruiting services. Head Coach Chip Kelly is still unsure if players will be suspended in the next couple of weeks.
Josh Huff (WR) could return to the rotation for Oregon after missing the last 2 weeks of the season, last week for additional rest. Kenjon Barber (RB) will also be back to give the Offense further depth, but the Defense will be missing Michael Clay (LB) again this week.
Head to Head
Oregon have won 3 games in a row against Arizona, averaging 49 points per game in those wins.
However, it is the Wildcats who are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 meetings between the schools.
The home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 meetings.
Both schools are 1-2 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Notes
Arizona have won their last 6 games against the spread as the home underdog being given 10.5 points or more.
They are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home underdog.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against Conference opponents.
Oregon are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
Prediction
This is an interesting game but I am going to go with the underdog to cover the spread against a powerful Oregon Offense.
Arizona are a tough team to play on the road, and they were a touch unfortunate not to have finished closer against Stanford last week. They have had a tough start to the season, but will want to show they are capable of playing against the big boys after struggling against Oklahoma State and Stanford.
Oregon have not played so well on the road when they are asked to cover big spreads, and they have struggled to put Arizona away in their recent meetings.
If the Wildcats can move the chains on the ground better than they have all season and give Nick Foles a bit of support, they could keep this close and I will back them with over a 2 TD start.
The Pick :
Arizona Wildcats 21-31 Oregon Ducks
