English Premier
2011-09-24 - Newcastle United vs Blackburn Rovers
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 24th September - Kickoff 3:00pm
Newcastle United
Following a 120 minutes of frantic Carling Cup football midweek, Newcastle finally beat Nottingham Forest to progress to the next round. Fortunately for Pardew's side is that most regulars were rested and the side should be fresh ahead of this weekends game at home to Blackburn.
I wanted to mentioned that win over Forest because it just emphasises how strong this Newcastle team is right now. Not necessarily on paper but as a unit despite selling all their star players Pardew is getting the best out of his staff and the results this season have been incredibly impressive.
Despite sales of Barton, Carroll, Nolan and Jose Enrique the Toon Army sit proudly in fourth place with 9 points and remain undefeated this season.
I was one of those who tipped the Toon as an outsider for relegation but Pardew has transformed the club and installed a belief that the football will go out with or without the "star players". It now looks as though Newcastle are primed for a really good season and a top half finish should be the aim.
With three draws and two wins, Newcastle has quietly moved up into fourth spot in the league. The draws have come at home to Arsenal (0-0), at QPR (0-0) and at Villa (1-1) with the 2 wins one at home to Fulham (2-1) and an impressive 1-0 win at local rivals Sunderland.
I don't really buy that Newcastle are a stronger force at home simply because they are an incredibly tough team to predict. Whilst their run of unbeaten games is good, they have draw the last two games but in their defence both were on the road. This is a typical game that everyone expects them to win but history suggests they could throw in a clanger against the odds. To emphasise this point Rovers have won the last 5 here at St James between the two sides.
The key to their success is keeping 3 clean sheets in 5 games, if you don't concede goals then you will always take at least a point. Not known for having a strong defence it's surprising to see Newcastle being so solid at the back. The key is captain Coloccini who has been outstanding this season, unfortunately for the Toon he played the whole 120 minutes midweek and whilst he will start.
Pardew can not expect his captain to be sharp for the whole 90 minutes, the same applies to first choice right back Simpson who also played the whole 120 minutes. As as result I think Blackburn will find chances to score and given their recent record at St James we could have a real tussle on our hands this Saturday.
Team news is that Williamson, Vuckic and Santon miss out whilst Ben Arfa is a doubt after making his comeback in the midweek win at Forest. Coloccini and Simpson will keep their places whilst Krul, both Taylors, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Obertan, Ba and Best will all return to strengthen the side. It means the same side that did well at Villa last time out will start on Saturday.
Predicted Newcastle United Lineup:
Krul, Simpson, Coloccini, S Taylor, R Taylor; Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Obertan; Ba, Best.
Blackburn Rovers
Following last week's incredible win over Arsenal, Rovers have shot up the table into 16th place and more importantly out of the relegation zone. However, Keen knows that one loss could drag his side back into the drop zone and the pressure will mount again. Newcastle isn't the scariest of places to visit and Rovers must look to take something from Saturday's game.
Rovers started the season with three really poor results, losing at home to Wolves (1-2), Everton (1-0) and then away to Villa (3-1). The Everton game in particular was a horror show, Rovers missed two pens at home and somehow went on to concede a last minute penalty themselves and ultimately suffered defeat.
Fair play to Keen though, he rallied his troops and in the next two games Rovers went to Fulham and drew (1-1) and then beat Arsenal (4-3) at Ewood Park despite going behind in the game on more than one occasion.
The team clearly has fight in them and is slowly grinding out the results, winning your first game of the season against Arsenal from a losing position certainly is the morale booster that the side needed. If Rovers play as they did against the Gunners they can take something form Saturday's despite what the bookies say.
The fear for this side is the lack of any defensive strength, no clean sheets in 5 games is horrific and with Newcastle scoring four midweek away from home we can expect the Toon to find the net in this one. Still they scored four against Arsenal and then three midweek in the Carling Cup, this game looks a very good both to score candidate.
Team news is that no one has been officially ruled out but doubts remain over a number of players including Dunn, Grella, Nelsen, Pedersen, Goodwillie and Salgado. The good news is that Dunn's calf injury should clear as should Salgado's and Pedersen's hamstring knocks. Nelsen will return to the bench as Dann and Samba appear to be forming a decent centreback pairing so it's as you were against Arsenal. With Yakubu up top supported by Hoilett with Dunn, Formica and Pedersen providing a threat from midfield.
Predicted Blackburn Lineup:
Robinson, Salgado, Dann, Samba, Givet; NZonzi, Dunn, Formica, Pedersen, Hoilett; Yakubu.
The Betting Verdict
The words Newcastle odds on favourites make me shudder, no offense to the Toon Army but even at home I'll always want around evens for Pardew's men unless it's against a newly promoted side.
Blackburn has a fantastic record here at St James and following a massive 4-3 win against Arsenal the side must be buzzing with confidence.
Newcastle look a different beast this season but I still won't back them, instead I like both teams to score.
Two of the Toon back line played 120 minutes midweek and must be tired, whilst Blackburn hasn't kept a clean sheet yet this season. With both teams going for it I can't see how this will end goalless or in a to nil victory for either side.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle 1-1 Blackburn
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score at 1.83 - 1.90
