English Premier
2011-09-24 - Arsenal vs Bolton
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 24th September - Kickoff 3:00pm
Arsenal
The season is only one month only but already it's a season of disappointment for the Gunners. Currently occupying 17th place in the table Arsenal has already suffered 3 defeats in 5 games and if a top four finish is the goal, Wenger's side must start winning games as soon as possible. Thankfully for them a favourable looking tie against Bolton awaits them this Saturday at the Emirates where only a win will do.
Even though the table is 5 games old and there is plenty of time for it to change and form its "true" shape, Arsenal has made a dreadful start and when we consider their odds to win the title are already out to 40/1 can we already say this year is a write-off?
I don't think Arsenal will win the title but writing them off now seems premature, although Fabregas and Nasri are gone, plenty of class remains and whilst it may not win the league they can certainly compete for a top four place.
In the two home games played this season Arsenal have lost to Liverpool 2-0 but then beat Swansea 1-0 after a goalkeeping error handed them victory. The performances have been incredibly poor and although a reserve side was put out midweek in the Carling Cup tie against Shrewsbury, you could sense a lack of confidence in the team. Wenger has even said that these last few months have been the most stressful and toughest in his career at Arsenal, he's certainly feeling the strain and this game is massive for the Gunners. Only 5 games into the season and already this is must win.
The bonus for Arsenal is that they have rediscovered their scoring boots in recent weeks. After being shut out in their opening two games of the season, Wenger's men have scored 6 goals in 3 games at a healthy average of 2 a game. Scoring 3 at Blackburn and 2 at United is impressive and against a fragile Bolton defence I see them getting at least two.
Unfortunately the defense is incredibly poor and after 5 games, Arsenal has conceded 14 goals at nearly 3 a game. Yes this is skewed after conceding 8 to Man United but with only 1 clean sheet in the last 4 it's hard not to see Bolton getting their chances in this game.
Team news is that Diaby, Wilshere, Vermaelen and Squillaci are out with doubts over Rosicky and Sagna. Rosicky picked up a knock over the International break but looks to have recovered for this one whilst Sagna took a knock last week and was subbed. The injury is not severe and as a result both should make the starting eleven.
Elsewhere Santos keeps his place at left back, whilst Arteta and Mertersacker also retain their places. Van Persie will lead the line up top and after a slow start to the season he will look to build on his one league goal this campaign.
Predicted Arsenal Lineup:
Szczęsny, Sagna, Mertersacker, Koscielny, Santos; Song, Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey, Gervinho; Van Persie.
Bolton Wanderers
Owen Coyle's Bolton occupy one of the dreaded relegation spots as they languish in 19th place. Following last year's horrendous crash down the table in the second half of the season, Bolton hasn't started this year very well at all and unless things turn around this side could seriously be a relegation candidate.
Like their opponents Arsenal, Wanderers has only won once in four games this year but unlike Wenger's men has lost the other four fixtures.
The win ironically came on the opening day of the season as Bolton went to Loftus Road and trounced QPR 4-0. The result put Coyle's side top and everyone soon forgot about last season's collapse down the table, however four losses and some incredibly dour performances later and there is a real worry within the camp that they could continue this slide down the table.
In the four defeats, three have come at home but they have been mainly against superior opposition. Losses to United (0-5) and City (2-3)are acceptable but then losing to Norwich (1-2) last time out isn't. The fans know that against the top four sides, this team can't compete but against a newly promoted side at home, Bolton really should be beating.
On Saturday Bolton visit the Emirates and must play as they did at Loftus Road and now as they did at Anfield (lost 3-1). I saw the game at Liverpool and 3-1 flattered Bolton immensely, the side looked slow and clueless. Had it not been for better finishing and some interesting penalty claims not given, this may have been a United like 5-0 battering.
Looking at the possitives, Bolton has scored in four of their five games this season with only table toppers United shutting them out. Coyle has been known to attack and most Bolton games go overs, I see this being the same at the weekend. Bolton scored two against City, one v Liverpool and even 2 midweek on the road in their Carling Cup game at Aston Villa. The side plays very open football and I see them getting a goal at the weekend, it won't be enough but should make for an entertaining game.
Team news is that Alonso, S Davies, Lee, Mears and Rickets miss out with Gardner and Holden doubts. Top scorer Klasnic misses out following his red card against Norwich last week meaning a shake up is likely up top. Captain Davies keeps his place but N'Gog should start alongside him with Tuncay on one side and Petrov on the other. Kakuta and Eagles featured midweek suggesting both will start this one on the bench. At the back new signing Boyata keeps his place whilst Pratley is preferred to M Davies in the middle of the park along side Reo-Coker.
Predicted Bolton Lineup:
Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson; Reo-Coker, Pratley, Tuncay, Petrov; N’Gog, K Davies.
The Betting Verdict
Having won the last five league games against Bolton, it's no surprise the Gunners are heavy favourites for this one. I wouldn't go anywhere near Arsenal at the 1.45 prices on offer despite this being a good match up for them.
Going forward Arsenal has some real quality and it's only a matter of time before they click and put 4-5 past someone. Even last week they put 3 past Blackburn and they didn't play well at all so this team has some real firepower.
The fear is the defence, you can't back that defence to keep anyone out right now and considering Bolton has scored on the last two visits to the Emirates against tougher defences we can expect them to get one this Saturday.
I'm going for the safer bet of over 2.75 goals as I feel both sdes will score at least one but this could become a really open game ending anything from 3-1 to 4-2. Both teams to score is only 1.72 but in case Arsenal "turn up" and delivery a 3-0 win, we still win our bet and that's the main thing. I don't see this being a 1-1 game, there will be goals and I see at least 2 or 3 for Wenger's men.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Arsenal 3-1 Bolton
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.75 Goals at 1.83 Pinnaclesports
