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2011-09-20 - Aston Villa vs Bolton Wanderers
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Carling Cup
Tuesday 20 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
Aston Villa
Alex McLeish led Birmingham City to Carling Cup victory last season and it is telling that he has been talking up the competition this week, which makes a rare change from the number of managers that feel it is an unwanted distraction during the early part of the season.
Villa remain unbeaten under McLeish, but there were a few murmurings of discontent in the stands on Saturday as they drew their 4th game from the first 5 Premier League games they have played. Villa are 7th in the Premier League table, but they will want to improve their 1-2-0 record at home where they have scored 4 goals and conceded 2.
The team are unbeaten in their last 8 games at Villa Park in all competitions, but they have only managed to score more than 1 goal in 2 of those games and one of those was against Hereford in the Carling Cup this season.
Villa have had some success in this competition in recent seasons, reaching the Quarter Final last year and finishing Runners Up the year before that. They are 4-1-0 at home in the Carling Cup since losing to QPR 0-1 in 2009.
Darren Bent, Stephen Warnock and Stiliyan Petrov are all doubts for the home side, but it has to be said that McLeish did play a strong team in the 2nd Round clash with Hereford, although making a few changes.
Bolton Wanderers
Many people expected Bolton would have a tough season in store when they lost Johan Elmander and Daniel Sturridge in the offseason, but things looked different after beating QPR 0-4 on the opening day. However, Bolton have struggled since that result and look like they will be facing a relegation battle after all.
The Trotters are down in 19th place in the Premier League with 3 points, having lost all 4 League games since their opening day win at Loftus Road. That does mean Bolton are 1-0-1 away from home, scoring 5 goals and conceding 3.
Bolton have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 Premier League games, although they did record a 2-1 win over Macclesfield at home in that between this bad run. Bolton lost their last away game at Liverpool which means they have lost 6 of their last 7 away games stretching back to last season.
They were beaten in this Round of the Carling Cup last season when they were surprised 1-0 at Burnley.
Ivan Klasnic is suspended after being sent off at the weekend against Norwich, but Stuart Holden is in line to make his first appearance in 6 months. I am not sure how keen Owen Coyle will be on this competition with all the struggles his side have had in the League of late.
Head to Head
Aston Villa had been unbeaten in 8 games against Bolton until losing their last meeting at the Reebok Stadium 3-2.
They drew 1-1 in the League at Villa Park last season, but Villa had won 3 in a row at home against Bolton before that, scoring at least 4 goals in every one of those wins.
Prediction
You have to do a lot of second guessing in the Carling Cup as to what kind of teams the managers will put out, so it is always best to play with minimum stakes.
Aston Villa look like they are a little more interested than most in having a proper impact in the competition, especially with this representing their most likely route back into Europe.
Alex McLeish has the pedigree to lead a side to a win after doing it with Birmingham last season, and their League status is more secure than Bolton's so Villa could have the stronger team out to move through to the next Round.
Owen Coyle may just have shifted his priorities for the season after seeing his side struggle in the early exchanges of the Premier League and the Scot may be less disheartened if Bolton do exit this competition.
The biggest concern I have is backing the draw specialists to win, but I think the prices are just about fair for the home win.
The Pick :
Aston Villa 2-1 Bolton Wanderers
