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2011-09-20 - Leeds United vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Carling Cup
Tuesday 20 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Leeds United
Let's not beat around the bush here- this is still one of the most passionate rivalries in England, one that has not been lessened by the fact the two teams have not been in the same Division for a few seasons. Simon Grayson knows how important it will be for the fans at Elland Road and in the city that Leeds United put in a good performance and try and stun the Champions of England.
An important home win at the weekend moved Leeds up to 11th in the Championship with a 3-1-3 record on the season. They have been tough to play at Elland Road where they are 3-0-1, scoring 9 goals and conceding 5.
Leeds have lost just 1 of their last 14 games in all competitions at Elland Road since being beaten by Arsenal in the FA Cup replay in January. They have won 5 of their last 6 games in front of their own fans after slumping to too many draws towards the end of last season that cost them a Play Off place.
The team beat Bradford 3-2 at home in the 1st Round of the Carling Cup and followed that with a win at Doncaster in the last Round.
Patrick Kisnorbo is suspended for the home side after being sent off at the weekend. Simon Grayson is also expected to make a few changes considering the side are playing Brighton on Friday night in the League.
Manchester United
Manchester United continued their 100% start to the new Premier League season on Sunday, but many of the fans will have been looking forward to this game even more than the Chelsea one, myself included. Games between Leeds and United have always been fast and furious and it will be interesting to see how many changes Sir Alex Ferguson makes to his side and how 'young' the players he plays are.
A 5th straight win in the League means United now sit on top of the Premier League table with a slight advantage over the rest of the teams. They struggled away from home last season, but have started with 2 wins from 2, scoring 7 goals and conceding 1.
United are unbeaten in their last 4 away games in all competitions since the back end of last season. This will be their first Carling Cup tie of the season, but they have won their last 2 away games at lower league sides in the competition since losing games against Derby County and Southend.
Sir Alex Ferguson has been building up Paul Pogba during the preseason and I am almost sure he will start. I would be surprised if Dimitar Berbatov and Michael Owen are not in the starting line up and can also see the likes of Michael Carrick, Anders Lindegaard, Ji Sung Park and Antonio Valencia getting game time.
Possible United starting line up: Lindegaard, Fabio, Evans, Jones, Thorpe, Valencia, Carrick, Pogba, Park, Berbatov and Owen.
Head to Head
The teams met most recently in the 3rd Round of the FA Cup in the 2009/10 season when Leeds famously upset United with a 0-1 win thanks to a Jermaine Beckford goal.
The last time they met at Elland Road was in the 2003/04 season and it was United who won 0-1 thanks to a late Roy Keane goal.
United have lost just 1 of their last 6 trips to Elland Road, all in the Premier League, and they did win 3 of those games.
Prediction
I think it is tough to back Manchester United at the prices considering the amount of changes they will make to the team and the fact that this is a local rivalry that will see a lot of passion coming down from the stands.
In saying that, it is also difficult to back a Leeds side that will likely make changes with an important League game coming up on Friday.
Instead I will focus on Michael Owen to get himself on the scoresheet in his first start of the season. Owen has had a couple of niggles to start 2011/12, but he has been back training for the last couple of weeks and must be expected to get the start to get some minutes under his belt.
He has enjoyed scoring for United in this competition, including in the Final of 2010 against Aston Villa, but more importantly he made hay when starting against lower League opposition. Owen has scored at Barnsley and Scunthorpe for United in this competition, and also managed to get on the scoresheet at Southampton in the FA Cup last season.
He looks overpriced at Coral where he is 2.75 to score at anytime and I expect the former European Player of the Year will get opportunities against a Leeds defence that has conceded 5 goals in 4 home games.
With this being a Carling Cup game, it is best to keep stakes to an absolute minimum.
The Pick :
Leeds United 1-2 Manchester United
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Michael Owen to score anytime @ 2.75 (Coral)- keep an eye out on team news leading up to the game to make sure Owen is starting.
