NFL Football
2011-09-18 - Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 2
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Chicago Bears (1-0) beat the reigning NFC South Champions at Soldier Field last week, but this looks like being a much tougher test as they visit the boisterous Louisiana Dome to play the New Orleans Saints (0-1). New Orleans lost to Green Bay in Week 1 in an entertaining game, one they feel they should have at least taken to Overtime.
It was Brian Urlacher's fumble recovery that put the icing on the cake for the Bears in Week 1, but their Defensive leader had a tough week with the sudden and unexpected passing of his mother.
Urlacher left the team facility at the beginning of the week but has returned as is yet as probable for this game on Sunday and you can only imagine how hard the Bears want to play for one of the most popular players in the NFL. Urlacher has always been 'the man' in the much vaunted Defense over the last decade and you can see from the emotion of the other players how much they want to help him through this tough time.
While I expect a big effort from the Defense, Chicago are only going to come away with a W if Jay Cutler and the Offense can put up some points against a Saints Defense that couldn't stop the Packers doing anything last week. A lot of the Bears problems come in the Red Zone where they don't seem able to punch home their advantage, ranking 30th in scoring from that position last season and being held to field goals against the Falcons in Week 1.
Matt Forte had a big game out of the backfield for the Bears and they will need him to do the same to make sure there is enough balance in the Offense.
The Saints will have had 10 days to work on the Defense that was heavily beat up by the Packers in Week 1.
There was less concern about the Saints Offense as Drew Brees passed for 419 yards and 3 TDs in the loss, although they were stuffed at the goal line when in a position to tie the game late on. The Offense will be missing some key components like Marques Colston and Lance Moore this week.
Head to Head
Chicago have actually won the last 4 games against the New Orleans Saints, the last of those in 2008 at Soldier Field.
Only 1 of those wins came in New Orleans, that back in 2005.
The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Chicago are 1-0 against the spread this season, New Orleans are 0-1.
Other Interesting Notes
New Orleans are 14-5 against the spread in the last 19 games following a straight up loss.
They are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
However, the Saints are just 23-37 against the spread in their last 60 games as the home favourite since 2001.
They are 8-17 against the spread in their last 25 games against teams from the NFC.
Chicago are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the underdog.
However, they are just 8-22 against the spread in their last 30 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
60% of the wagers made in Vegas have been on Chicago.
Prediction
I think the Saints will be able to win this game, but I really feel the Bears are going to keep it close as they play harder for Brian Urlacher.
The Chicago Defense is capable of keeping the Bears in this game, while I have enough faith that the Offense has enough big plays to keep up to a point with the Saints.
Drew Brees was exceptional in Week 1, but he has lost 2 receivers and I think he will face a little more pressure against a Defensive Unit that should be inspired.
It will also be interesting to see how the Saints handle the fact they came so close to knocking off the SuperBowl Champions, but failed down the stretch and whether they are 'up' for this game as much as the Bears are likely to be.
New Orleans also have a tough time covering at home, but I would be a lot keener on the Bears if they didn't have such a bad record on the road when given this many points.
I was truly hoping this spread would have moved up to 7 Points and then I would have hit it harder, but 6.5 Points is still a lot for this Defense.
I think Chicago performs big for Urlacher and keeps this close at the very least.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New Orleans 24-20 Chicago Bears
