NFL Football
2011-09-18 - Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 2
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams had emotional openers to the new NFL season, but they look like teams that may be going in different directions. The Houston Texans (1-0) earned a big win over the Indianapolis Colts and are favourites to win the AFC South, while the Miami Dolphins (0-1) were taken apart by AFC East rivals New England on national TV on Monday night.
The Texans did not have Arian Foster in the opening week of the season, but it made little difference in their dominating win over the Colts. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson continue their productive partnership, with the latter arguably the finest receiver in football.
Things are potentially going to be even stronger if Foster makes his return this week and that does not bode well for a Miami Defense that was pulled apart by Tom Brady on Monday night.
The Defensive unit allowed 622 total yards to the Patriots on Monday night, a franchise history, and they could not stop New England at any point in the game.
To keep up with the potent Texans Offense, the Dolphins will hope they can at least match their output from the game in Week 1 when Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards. The Dolphins will use Reggie Bush heavily in this game to try and take advantage of the Texans biggest Defensive weakness, but even that may not be enough.
Bush is not the bruising back Miami may need in a game like this, while the Texans have really bought into Defensive Co-Ordinator Wade Phillips' ideas since he joined the franchise in the offseason.
Miami have now lost 10 of their last 11 games at home.
Head to Head
Houston have a great record against Miami, winning all 5 meetings against them since their franchise began.
2 of those wins have come in Miami including a 27-20 win the last time they met in 2009.
Houston are 3-2 against the spread against Miami, including 2-0 in Miami.
Miami are 0-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 1-0.
Other Interesting Notes
Miami are 17-46-1 against the spread in their last 64 home games.
They are 3-9-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as the home underdog being given between 0.5 and 3 points.
The Dolphins are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a Monday Night Football appearance.
Houston are 3-9-2 against the spread in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games on the road.
The Texans are just 2-5 against the spread in their 7 road games as the favourite.
They are 10-13 against the spread in their 23 games since 2007 following a straight up win.
87% of the wagers made in Vegas have been placed on Houston.
Prediction
This is yet another game where I am looking at the spread and finding it hard to understand as I think the Texans are ready to finally make a move into the Play Offs this season.
I am not putting too much into their win over the Colts considering they did the same last season and ended with a 6-10 record, but they seem to have enough Offensive weapons to cause the Dolphins plenty of problems.
The Texans also have a much better Defensive unit than last season and they are playing like they really enjoy what Wade Phillips want them to do.
Both teams have had emotional games, but I think the extra day off would have done the Texans good and it is tough playing on the short weeks as Miami will have to do.
With the spread set as a field goal, I am going to have a play on the Texans to cover.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Miami Dolphins 24-30 Houston Texans
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Houston Texans -3 Points @ 2.05
