NFL Football
2011-09-18 - Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 2
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Everyone knew Peyton Manning was probably the most important QB in the entire NFL simply because he was acting as joint Offensive Co-Ordinator in all honesty at the Indianapolis Colts (0-1). Their blow out loss at Houston has everyone scrambling to jump off the Colts bandwagon, but it is a real surprise to me that they are the underdogs at home against the Cleveland Browns (0-1).
Kerry Collins will have to do a much better job for the Colts if they want to avoid their first 0-2 start to the season in 13 years. Collins threw for 197 yards and 1 TD last week in Houston, but much of his statistics were built in garbage time as the game was long gone. He fumbled the ball away twice and the Colts were completely outplayed.
Collins is expected to hold the keys to the Offense for at least the first 2 months of the season that Peyton Manning is expected to miss, but they could shut down the QB for the whole season if the Play Offs are already out of reach. Talk has also began that the Colts will be very interested in making a play for Andrew Luck in the Draft next year.
The Offensive Line had problems keeping the rush off of their QB, and they gave the Defense no chance to keep the Colts in the game.
Indianapolis could have more success against Cleveland who had a few problems moving the chains against Cincinnati last week. Colt McCoy only completed 19 of 40 attempts but did manage to throw 2 TDs and 1 Interception and the 2nd year QB took the blame for the loss.
The Browns Defense is supposed to be the the stronger of the two units they have, and they played well for the most part until falling asleep in the 4th Quarter and allowing the Bengals to take the lead. The Browns gave up 294 yards of total Offense against Cincinnati and had 4 Sacks, but were still in the huddle when allowing a 41 yard TD to give the Bengals a 20-17 lead.
The Colts will have to face a heavy dose of Peyton Hillis you feel, especially considering they gave up 167 yards on the ground to the Houston Texans in Week 1 without Arian Foster.
Head to Head
Indianapolis have won all 5 meetings with Cleveland since the franchise returned to the NFL going back to 1999.
The Colts won the last meeting 13-10 in Cleveland.
Both teams are 0-1 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Notes
Indianapolis are 13-2-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as the underdog being given between 0.5 and 3 points.
The Colts are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 home games.
Cleveland are 5-16-1 against the spread in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.
The Browns have lost their last 6 games against the spread following a straight up loss.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
51% of the wagers in Vegas have gone down on Cleveland.
Prediction
I think this could be one of the 'trap' games of the week because I do not understand why the Colts are considered the underdog after 1 week against a team like the Cleveland Browns who are coming off a loss to a 2nd string QB.
The Colts have got to be angry and wanting to prove a point to the nation after the debacle in Houston last week. However, it might have escaped a few peoples attentions that the Texans crushed the Colts, with Peyton Manning, in Week 1 last season too.
There is still plenty of talent in the Offense with the likes of Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai, and they could make the spread look foolish if they get a lead and allow their pass rushers to tee off on Colt McCoy.
I just can't help thinking the Colts are better than the layers think- in Week 1, everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and I think they come out with fire in their belly to prove they are better than just one player and I will back them to win this game.
I would have backed the Colts on the spread IF it had reached 3 points, but it is set at under that magical field goal mark and so I will take the Colts on the money line.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Indianapolis Colts 20-16 Cleveland Browns
