NFL Football
2011-09-18 - Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 2
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams come into Week 2 having been involved in surprising results in Week 1. The Detroit Lions (1-0) were quietly favoured by fancy to stun Tampa Bay, which they duly did, but Kansas City (0-1) were humiliated at home by the Buffalo Bills as 7 point favourites.
Todd Haley is under pressure in Kansas having overseen the 41-7 loss last week and there are some serious questions as to what happened to the Offense. Charlie Weis left his position as Offensive Co-Ordinator at the back end of last season and they struggled against Baltimore in the Play Off game and again in Week 1.
The Offensive Line struggled and Matt Cassel is still hurting with a rib injury that he took in the final preseason game. That led to a disjointed effort where Cassel was averaging just 3.2 yards a completion, shocking statistics in the NFL which is very much turning into a passing League.
Cassel's struggles may be helped if the Chiefs can get Jamaal Charles running as effectively as he was for much of last season. Charles only got 10 carries last week which he turned into 56 yards, but the Chiefs will do well to remember they are 3-0 when he gets at least 20 carries.
Another concern for the Chiefs is the loss of Eric Berry for the season. Berry was a key component in the Defense that made it hard for so many teams to pass on the Chiefs last season, and his absence hit hard when Ryan Fitzpatrick began tearing them apart last week.
This concern could become a big problem if Matt Stafford is as zoned in as he was last week in Tampa Bay when he tore the Buccaneers Secondary apart. Stafford passed for over 300 yards and also threw 3 TDs to once again show case his talent and prove that the Lions are the real deal IF he can stay healthy.
Stafford and Calvin Johnson could create a potent team that will scare the life out of Secondary's throughout the League and it was Johnson who nabbed 2 of the TD passes thrown last week.
Detroit's Defense was expected to be dominant at the beginning of the season although they will still be without Nick Fairley this week. They held the Buccaneers to just 56 yards on the ground last week and you can be sure they will look to shut down the Chiefs running game and force Matt Cassel to beat them through the air.
The Lions will be expecting to post a winning record on the year for the first time since 2000 and also to extend their longest winning run, 5 games, since 1995 when they won 7.
Head to Head
Detroit and Kansas City are in opposite Conferences meaning they are very unlikely to meet more than every 4 years barring any SuperBowl games.
Detroit won the last time they met in 2007, but they had lost 4 in a row before that.
The Chiefs have won 5 in a row against the spread against the Lions.
Detroit are 1-0 against the spread this season, Kansas City are 0-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Detroit have won their last 7 games against the spread when they won the previous game straight up.
They finished 7-1 against the spread at home last season.
They are 9-23 against the spread in the last 32 games they have been favoured by between 3.5 and 10 points.
The Lions are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
Kansas City are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog.
However, they are just 2-5 against the spread in the game following a loss by 14 points or more.
Detroit are the popular pick in Vegas with around 79% of the action backing them.
Prediction
I really like the Lions to beat the Chiefs and cover the spread but I will be keeping my stakes on this pick to a minimum because they have to overcome some big mental hurdles in the game.
There is a new expectation on the Lions these days and that is something the players will not have dealt with before, so the change in atmosphere in the stadium may make this game tougher than it should be.
Detroit have to overcome a spread that they have not faced for OVER 10 YEARS, and that again brings a different pressure on players when they are not just expected to win, but to win with a little comfort.
The thing is, I think the Chiefs really are a bad team; their 10-6 record from last season is a mirage considering the schedule they faced and they were shown up by Baltimore in the Play Offs.
The Bills also showed how the Secondary can be taken apart right now and I think Stafford and co will follow the blue print and pull the win and cover.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 31-16 Kansas City Chiefs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Detroit Lions -7.5 Points @ 1.92
