English Premier
2011-09-18 - Manchester United vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Sunday 18 September 2011 - Kickoff 4pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester United
Manchester United have made a fantastic start to the new season, but this looks like being their toughest test so far as they look to maintain their 100% record in the Premier League. Sir Alex Ferguson has had to use his younger squad members at the start of the season, but they have not disappointed so far.
United are top of the Premier League thanks to a superior goal difference over local rivals Manchester City, and the title is already being tipped to stay in Manchester. United have won all 4 League games they have played this season while scoring 18 goals and conceding just 3. Both wins at Old Trafford have been over North London clubs Tottenham and Arsenal, with United scoring 11 goals and conceding 2.
The start to the season at Old Trafford means United have won 22 of their last 23 games in the Premier League in front of their own fans stretching back to April 2010. In only 3 of those games have United failed to score more than 1 goal and they have a very strong recent history of leading at half time and going on to win the game.
Rafael and Nemanja Vidic are both ruled out for this game, but Rio Ferdinand should return having been rested for the trip to Benfica. Phil Jones is another who will look to return to the starting line up, but Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley are sidelined.
United made a number of changes for the game against Benfica, so others likely to return to the line up are David de Gea, Anderson, Nani, Ashley Young and Javier Hernandez.
Chelsea
Andre Villa-Boas made some changes to his starting line up in the win over Bayer Leverkusen with this game in mind in what is his first big test as manager of Chelsea. This is a chance for Chelsea to lay down a marker as they have seemingly been forgotten in the early stages of the season as the Manchester clubs run riot on the League.
It is a surprise that Chelsea have been talked about so little considering they have picked up 10 points in their opening 4 games of the season and are up to 3rd in the Premier League. However, the performances have not been so good and that, perhaps, is the reason they have not been held in the same regard as the top 2 teams. Chelsea are 1-1-0 away from home, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1.
The Blues lost their last 2 away games in the Premier League last season, but those are the only 2 they have suffered in 10 away games in the League. It was games against the big teams that cost Chelsea last season, and they lost at United, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool and only managed a draw at Tottenham.
Didier Drogba looks like missing out after suffering a concussion against Norwich, while Michael Essien is the only long term absentee. Frank Lampard and John Terry will be expecting to be restored to the starting line up after being rested during the week.
Head to Head
Chelsea had won 3 Premier League games in a row against United when they came from behind to win the game at Stamford Bridge in controversial circumstances in March.
However, United more than made up for that by beating Chelsea twice in the Champions League Quarter Final and then in the League at Old Trafford.
United have won 4 of their last 5 home games against Chelsea in all competitions.
The games between the big clubs in the Premier League are usually associated as being low scoring ones, but the last 4 at Old Trafford between these teams has seen 3 goals scored between them.
In fact, 4 of the last 5 games overall have ended with more than 2 goals scored.
Prediction
I was going to recommend United to win as the pick from the game, but I think they are a little short at odds on to win the game and so I have looked at other markets.
In the vast majority of games they played at Old Trafford in the last 12 months, United have led at half time and then gone on to win the game, but again I think that might be a slight risk against a pacy Chelsea side that is likely to start with Daniel Sturridge, Fernando Torres and Juan Mata up front.
Therefore, I have settled with picking the 'Over 2.5 Goals' for the game, which would have been a winner in many of their recent games.
United have a few issues in central midfield and defence to rectify so I can see Chelsea getting on the scoresheet at least once, while the attacking potential of United has been very strong in the opening weeks of the season and I think they too can take advantage of suspect defending that the Blues have been showing in the early weeks of the season.
At a price of odds against, goals have to be the call for me.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester United 2-1 Chelsea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
