English Premier
2011-09-17 - Blackburn Rovers vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 17 September 2011 - Kickoff 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Blackburn Rovers
The pressure on Steve Kean as Blackburn manager must surely be reaching untenable levels at Ewood Park as the team has made a stuttering start to the new season. A petition was forwarded from the fans to the owners demanding action be taken, but they have come out in support of Kean. This has prompted the fans to organise a march on Saturday morning in protest against Kean and the management team.
All of the that should only increase pressure on Rovers to get a result against Arsenal in the early live game on Saturday. The team are currently bottom of the Premier League having earned a fortunate point at Fulham last week, their first of the campaign. Blackburn have lost both games at Ewood Park, scoring 1 goal and conceding 3.
Blackburn have won a Carling Cup game at home this season when putting League One Sheffield Wednesday to the sword, but their form at home in the Premier League has been shocking for some time now. They have won just 1 of their last 9 League games at home, and they have lost 4 of those. Blackburn only lost 5 games at home in the whole of last season, so 2 early defeats this year are not welcomed by a team that is expected to struggle.
Ryan Nelson should be available this week and it could not come soon enough with Christopher Samba looking doubtful with a back injury. David Dunn played a part last week and should start but Morten Gamst Pederson is another who needs a late fitness test. David Goodwillie was struggling with a hamstring issue at Fulham last week, but looks like he will remain in the starting line up.
Arsenal
Pat Rice believes Arsenal have turned a corner in their season following a 1-0 win over Swansea and a 1-1 draw in Dortmund, but there were still plenty of questions to be asked with the amount of chances they allowed the opposition to create. Arsene Wenger knows his side need time to get used to all the new faces, but they cannot afford to let the top teams get too far away even at this early stage.
The Gunners are 12th in the Premier League table having secured 4 points from a possible 12. Their win over Swansea last week would have been much needed, but they still have a few demons to exorcise considering this is their first away League game since that 8-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Arsenal are 0-1-1 away from home in the League, scoring 2 goals and conceding 8.
It has been a tough few months for Arsenal who have now won just 3 of their last 15 Premier League games and they have lost 5 of their last 9 League games. They have won just 1 of their last 9 away games in the League, and have failed to win any of their last 6. Wenger will be hoping the new signings he has made in defence can help a side that has conceded 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 9 away games.
Thomas Vermaelan, Abou Diaby and Jack Wilshire remain on the long term injury list for Arsenal. Tomas Rosicky and Aaron Ramsey both missed the trip to Germany on Tuesday, although Rosicky should be available for Saturday with Ramsey needing a fitness test.
Head to Head
Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 3 Premier League games against Blackburn at home and away, but they had won 4 in a row before this run.
The Gunners are 3-1-1 in their last 5 League visits to Ewood Park and have also won a Carling Cup tie here in that time.
Prediction
I can understand why Arsenal are the favourites in this game, but I don't think I am close to being comfortable in taking this side at odds against simply because of the new faces they are integrating into the side and the poor performances in defensive areas in the last two games, even if they have only conceded 1 goal.
In saying that, Blackburn Rovers are one team that I wouldn't back with any semblance of belief because they look like a side that is heading in only one direction at this moment in time. They are usually tougher to beat at home, but recent form there has been poor too, although they somehow failed to avoid defeat against Everton even after being awarded TWO penalties.
While I am staying clear of the win-draw-win market, I have found a potential money earner at odds against, something of a surprise to me.
I am backing Robin Van Persie to score at anytime at 2.20, a bigger price than the Arsenal win and my reasons are simple.
Van Persie has now scored 15 goals in 16 away games in a run from last season- in fact, he has scored at least one goal in 10 of his last 11 away games in the Premier League.
Add to that goals at Udinese and Dortmund and I think he is being underestimated to get on the scoresheet here, especially as someone who will take penalties and potential free kicks in range.
Just to confirm this is the pick for me, I also noticed he had scored in 3 of his last 4 League appearances at Ewood Park and I would hazard a guess that Wayne Rooney would be far shorter if he had been on a scoring run like this.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Blackburn 1-1 Arsenal
