NCAA Football
2011-09-17 - Houston Cougars at Louisiana Tech
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 3
Saturday 17 September 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Houston Cougars (2-0) are a potential team that can run the table this season with the way their schedule is panned out, but they will need to win a road game at Louisiana Tech (1-1) who won their only home game this season.
Houston's success really will come down to Case Keenum, a potential Heismann Trophy winner this season and a QB that will look to do big things now he is feeling healthy. Keenum destroyed North Texas last week, throwing 5 TD passes and for over 400 yards.
The Offense has plenty of playmakers looking beyond Keenum and you can expect the Cougars to be one of the higher scoring teams as they play at a fast up-tempo speed.
The Defense played their part by shutting down the Mean Green in the 2nd half after struggling to do the same in their Week 1 win over UCLA.
Ralph Oragwu (OL) has missed the first 2 weeks of the season, but there is a chance he is back in the rotation for this game. Oragwu is a projected starter for the Cougars.
Louisiana Tech played a really solid game in the Week 1 loss to Southern Miss, but did not play so well when beating Central Arkansas last week. The key for the team will be their running back, Lennon Creer who has 230 yards and 4 rushing TDs this season in the opening 2 weeks of the season.
Creer will be expected to carry the load as they have a very inexperienced QB in the form of Nick Isham. There are big things expected of Isham, but it will be difficult to expect him to keep up with Houston at such a young age.
It is also hard to second guess the Bulldogs Defense that played so well against Southern Miss, but could not stop anything against Central Arkansas. They have played the run well, but the Secondary was lit up by the Bears and that does not bode well when facing Case Keenum.
Ryan Williams (SS) has a knee injury and his status is questionable this week because the team are unsure how serious the injury is. Ahmad Paige (WR) was expected to be a starter for the Bulldogs this season, but he has been kicked off the team for violating team rules.
Head to Head
These two schools last met in 1995 so the head to head is largely irrelevant.
Louisiana Tech are 1-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 2-0.
Other Interesting Notes
Louisiana Tech are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 8-18 against the spread in their last 26 Non-Conference games.
They are 15-36-1 against the spread in their last 52 games following a straight up win.
Houston are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road favourite.
They have lost their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
This is a tough match because I really like Case Keenum as a QB, but I think they may have to tough one out on the road so I am going to pick Louisiana Tech to cover.
I really hoped the spread would move to 7.5 points in their favour and I would have been really keen to take them then, but the 7 points will at least protect us if they fall by a TD.
Houston have not had the best of times on the road when the expectation is squarely on their shoulders which can be seen from their poor record when favoured by more than a field goal.
I know the Louisiana Tech Secondary was hammered last week, but I believe that could be because they were in a 'breather' spot as Central Arkansas is the 'easiest' game on their schedule in the first 4 weeks of the season.
I could look really silly at half time in this one, but I think Louisiana Tech will control the clock with their running game and I think the Defense plays more like how they did against Southern Miss than last week and I think they may keep this close.
The Pick :
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 28-31 Houston Cougars
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +7 Points @ 1.92
