Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators Betting pick | 2011-09-17

NCAA Football

2011-09-17 - Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators
United States: College Football Week 3
Saturday 17 September 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is one of the big rivalries in College Football, although both teams are downplaying the 'hatred' that seemed to linger when they played one another in recent years. Both teams are in rebuilding phases as the Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) visit the Florida Gators (2-0) with someone's unbeaten record on the line.

A big key to the rivalry in the past was the implications the result had for the winners- the team that came out with the W in 12 of the 19 times they have played went on to compete in the SEC Championship game.

Both teams will be playing their first SEC game of the season, although neither was expected to really compete in the toughest Division of College Football with the young teams and first year Head Coaches they have.

Tennessee have really struggled when playing the better schools on the road of late, losing their last 10 when visiting ranked teams. However they have made a strong start to this season and feel they have a chance behind Tyler Bray (QB).

Bray became on the 2nd QB in the schools history to pass for more than 400 yards in a game, and he is in good company considering Peyton Manning was the other player to do so. He has thrown 7 TD passes in his first 2 games this season and is yet to thrown an Interception.

While the Offense has been playing well, the Volunteers could be hindered by a Defense that is struggling to stop teams and gave up just under 400 yards in total Offense to the Cincinnati Bearcats last week.

Dallas Thomas (LT) is looking likely to start this week after coming out of the game against Cincinnati last week. Greg King (LB) is doubtful again this week and is yet to play a part this season, but Devrin Young (RB) is likely to play a part, most likely on the Special Teams.

Florida were another school that was supposed to be going through a transitional period as they move on from the Tim Tebow era that ended in 2009. That has not stopped them making a fast start to this season where they have allowed just 3 points in their first 2 games, both blowout victories.

John Brantley, the starting QB, has been quietly effective even if the statistics show he has thrown 1 TD and 2 Interceptions. He has helped the Gators find an extremely balanced Offense that is providing 241 yards through the air and 248 yards on the ground.

The Defense has been playing their part by completely suffocating the opposition they have faced so far, but this is the toughest test they will have faced so far. A lack of turnovers will be a concern for the Gator fans and they have only recorded 1 in their first 2 games.

Florida have an incredible 94-4 record at the Swamp since 1990 against unranked teams.

While the Defense has been tough so far, they have been given a significant shot in the arm now Sharrif Floyd (DL) has been granted eligible by the NCAA after missing the first 2 weeks of the season. Floyd is held in the highest regard as a Defensive Lineman after making the All-SEC freshman team last season and he looks like a potential NFL player in the making.

Jeff Demps (RB) came out of the Florida win last week, but his status is probable for this week. Jordan Reed (TE) is another who was forced out of the game last week but is set to return this.

Jeremy Brown (CB) is still out with an injury after starting 10 games last season, while Robert Clark's (WR) status is up in the air as he recovers from a hamstring issue.

Head to Head

Florida have won 6 in a row against Tennessee both at home and on the road and have not lost to the Volunteers since 2004.

Tennessee were beaten by 14 points at home last season.

The Gators have won the last 3 times they have met in the Swamp, going 2-1 against the spread in that time.

The road team is 7-3-1 against the spread the last 11 times they have played one another.

Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings.

Other Interesting Notes

Florida have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite.

They are 19-9 against the spread in their last 28 games following a straight up win.

They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

The Gators are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.

Tennessee have won their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.

They are 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games on the road against a team with a winning record at home.

They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the underdog.

The Volunteers are 3-14-1 against the spread in their last 18 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.

Prediction

I am going to back the home team to come away with a big win because I think they have the edge in the Defensive unit and we all know that 'defenses win Championships'.

Florida have enough Offense to take advantage of the Tennessee Defense that has been struggling in their opening 2 weeks and I think the balance of the Gators will keep the Volunteers guessing.

This is the toughest test Tyler Bray will face so far this season and I think the Gator Defense will eventually prove too much for him.

This game will be close for a while, probably for the entire first half, but eventually the Gator's should be able to take control and be able to pull away for the win while covering the spread.