Wisconsin Badgers at Northern Illinois Betting pick | 2011-09-17

NCAA Football

2011-09-17 - Wisconsin Badgers at Northern Illinois

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Wisconsin Badgers @ Northern Illinois Huskies
United States: College Football Week 3
Saturday 17 September 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

I have set the Northern Illinois Huskies (1-1) as the home team, but this game is actually taking place at the historic Soldier Field, home of the Chicago Bears. The Huskies face a tough task as they meet the Wisconsin Badgers (2-0), a team that looks like they could have a big season.

Wisconsin figured they would be one of the contenders to win the Big 10 this season, but even they must be pleasantly surprised with the ease that Russell Wilson has fit into the system as the new QB in the system.

I was pretty high on Wilson during his time with North Carolina, and he has helped the Badgers no end with his ability to pull down the ball and run as well as being able to make the plays with his arm. Wisconsin have been known as a predominantly rushing Offense, but Wilson's arrival means Defenses have to respect the passing game too.

The other factor that makes the Badgers a real dark horse for the big prize this season is that Defense that continues to stifle the run. They struggled in their opening game of the season when allowing UNLV 150 yards on the ground, but bounced back by holding Oregon State to just 23 yards as well as keeping a shutout on the scoreboard.

Last season the Badgers finished 5th in the nation in rushing Defense and topped the Big 10 in that category, but if there is one man who may be able to find a weakness it could be Dave Doeren.

Doeren is the first year Head Coach of the Northern Illinois Huskies, but he was the Defensive Co-Ordinator in Wisconsin for the last 5 years.

The Huskies will hope their QB Chandler Harnish can continue his bright start to the season against this tough Defensive unit. Harnish has thrown 7 TD passes and also rushed for 4 more in the first 2 games of the season and has only thrown 1 Interception, but this is going to be the toughest test he has faced.

The team has averaged 218 yards per game on the ground and will need to go some to replicate that against the Badgers.

A bigger problem for Doeren could be his own Defense which has been gashed heavily by the run in the first 2 games of the season. In both of their games against Army and Kansas State, the Huskies have actually been outrushed by their opponents.

Cameron Stingily (MLB) remains questionable for Northern Illinois having missed the first 2 weeks of the season, although he is expected back sooner rather than later.

Wisconsin have a few injuries to contend with coming into this game; Devin Smith (CB) is out having undergone surgery after being injured last week and he will miss the rest of the season. Kevin Claxton (LB) banged up his wrist last week and is listed as questionable for the game, while Marcus Trotter (LB) is doubtful having missed last weeks game from an injury suffered in Week 1.

There is better news for the Offensive Line which should have Travis Frederick back after he missed the win over Oregon State. Frederick has been practising this week and is expected to start.

Head to Head

Wisconsin have won the last 4 meetings with Northern Illinois, although they have not played since 2009.

They have met twice since 2007, with each gaining 1 win against the spread.

Both teams are 1-1 against the spread in their opening 2 games this season.

Other Interesting Notes

Northern Illinois are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games on a neutral site as the underdog.

They are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog being given 10.5 points or more.

The Huskies are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games against Big 10 opponents.

Wisconsin are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games on a neutral site.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games being favoured by 10.5 points or more.

They have won their last 8 games against the spread following a straight up win.

Prediction

I think the Wisconsin Badgers look the call in this match to be played on neutral site, even though the Huskies should still have the majority of support in Soldier Field.

I really like the Badgers Offense with Russell Wilson holding the keys and I think they have a great balance that will keep their former Defensive Co-Ordinator under pressure with a Huskies Defense that cannot seem to stop anyone.

Northern Illinois are going to keep things close for a while, but I think the Wisconsin Defense will be able to clamp down on their running game and force the Huskies into 3rd and longs and possible mistakes as they begin to play catch up.

This should allow the Badgers to start moving away from Northern Illinois as the game progresses in the 3rd Quarter and I will look for them to win the game while covering the spread in the later stages.