Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets Betting pick | 2011-09-16

NCAA Football

2011-09-16 - Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Boise State Broncos @ Toledo Rockets
United States: College Football Week 3
Friday 16 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Boise State Broncos (1-0) bring their unbeaten record to Toledo to take on the Rockets (1-1), a team coming off a close loss last week. The Broncos had a bye week after winning their opening game of the season at Georgia and have a real ambition of running the table and possibly playing in the National Championship game.

Boise State have been consistency personified over the last few seasons in the NCAA, but have been overlooked for the big game simply because they are a non-BCS school with a questionable schedule more often than not. However, they made life easier to be ignored when losing a home game to Nevada last year as the 14 point favourites.

They have a number of players returning from last season which makes them one of the favourites to play in the National Championship game this year. Kellen Moore remains the QB and he opened his season with a 3 TD, 1 Interception performance in Georgia.

The Broncos do have a few question marks in terms of injuries this week. Some of it is good news with Ebenezer Makinde (CB) upgraded to probable- he was expected to be one of the starting Corners for this team and is in line for his first start of the season.

Joe Kellogg (LB) was injured against Georgia but could play a part here with the injury clearing up a little quicker than expected, but Dan Paul (FB) is questionable having missed the opener.

There is also some doubt over 3 players due to eligibility issues- Cedric Febis, Geraldo Boldewijn and Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe are all training with the Broncos but a decision is yet to be made by the NCAA as to whether they can take part this week. Febis and Boldewijn were expected to see plenty of time this season in the rotation.

The Rockets are not to be underestimated as they almost became the first team from Ohio to beat the Buckeyes since 1921. A series of mistakes and bad plays saw Toledo only lost 27-22 in a game where they were considered the big underdogs by the layers.

A lot of the mistakes were down to the special teams and giving away penalties that ultimately cost them the surprise result of the season.

Toledo have to come into this game off a short week of preparation, but Tim Beckman, the Head Coach, believes they are ready to take on the highest ranked opponent in the school's history in front of their own fans.

Austin Dantin will be the starting QB after being given that opportunity last week. He has thrown 4 TD passes and 0 Interceptions this season and racked up over 300 yards through the air.

There was good news for the Rockets that starting CB, Taikwon Paige, will be available this week after he was forced to come out of the game last week at Ohio State.

However, the middle of the Defense has been hurt badly as Dan Molls (MLB) is again missing, while Robert Bell (LB) has also been ruled out after picking up a rib injury against the Buckeyes last week. Bell left the game in the 3rd Quarter but still finished as the leading tackler for the Rockets in that game, following up the opening weekend when he forced 2 fumbles as well as getting a sack.

Head to Head

Boise State and Toledo met last season on the blue turf in Idaho, with the Broncos winning comfortably while covering the 38 point spread.

Both teams have winning records against the spread this season- Boise State are 1-0, Toledo are 2-0.

Other Interesting Notes

Toledo are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games.

They are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in September.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

The Rockets are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the underdog being given 10.5 points or more.

Boise State are 20-7 against the spread in their last 27 games on the road.

They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite.

They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.

The Broncos are 18-8-1 against the spread in their last 27 games following an ATS win.

Prediction

You have to like Boise State to make a real statement in this spot for the following reasons:

First, the Broncos powerful Offense has to see the holes that are popping up in the Rockets Defense and will take advantage of those with the match ups they can create.

Second, Boise State have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game so should be fully focused and raring to go.

Third, Toledo have just come off an emotional loss to Ohio State in a game they will feel they could have won. The quick turnaround to face Boise State may be too much for them.

Finally, Toledo may have been able to keep it closer against Ohio State because the home team could have been on a 'breather' with a big game with Miami this week. They were also short of a few players and may not have been focused on the Rockets.

The point spread is fairly high, but Boise State showed what they can do against the Rockets last season, and I think they are going to gas the Toledo Defense early with their up-tempo Offense before pulling away in the 2nd half to record the win.