Champions League
2011-09-14 - Benfica vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Champions League Match Day 1
Wednesday 14 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Benfica
The Group was originally dismissed as an easy one for Manchester United, but Benfica are a tough side that could cause plenty of teams problems, especially in front of their passionate support at the Stadium of Light.
Benfica had to qualify for the Champions League proper having finished a long way behind Porto last season. They beat Trabzonspor 3-1 on aggregate and followed that up with a 5-3 aggregate win over Twente as they beat both sides at home. The Eagles have also made a solid start to the League season, going 3-1-0 in their opening 4 games and winning both games at home while scoring 5 goals and conceding 2.
The team should have plenty of confidence coming into the game as they are now unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions. Benfica are unbeaten in 6 games at the Stadium of Light, winning the last 4 of those. Last season, Benfica finished with a 2-0-1 record at home in the Group Stage of this competition and fell into the Europa League. They then reached the Semi Final of that competition, winning all 4 home games meaning they have won 6 in a row at home in European competition.
Enzo Perez is a major doubt for Benfica, but they did have Ezequial Garay, Nolito and Maxi Periera all back from injury in that game. The likes of Pablo Aimar, Oscar Cardoza and Axel Witsel are all likely to pose dangers to an expected much changed United side.
Manchester United
The Group has been kind to Manchester United in terms of qualification, but they face a big test in Portugal to kick off the new campaign as they look to build on a recent history that has seen the Red Devils reach the Final of this competition in 3 of the last 4 seasons.
The defeat to Barcelona in the Final at Wembley still rankles with Sir Alex Ferguson who plots to change the average age of the United side to get nearer to the Catalan giants. So far so good for the younger looking United side as they have won all 4 League games and also beat Manchester City in the Community Shield having fallen 2-0 behind. United have won both away games played this season, scoring 7 goals and conceding 1.
It was the defence that helped United move through to the Final last season, particularly away from home where they were 4-1-0 and kept clean sheets in every game. United had been unbeaten in 13 Champions League games before losing to Barcelona in the Final. United have only lost 1 of their last 23 away games in the Champions League (not including Finals), and they have kept clean sheets in their last 6.
Rio Ferdinand has been left in Manchester to rest in preparation for the game with Chelsea on Sunday. Nemanja Vidic, Rafael, Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley are all out, but Jonny Evans and Patrice Evra have been passed fit to travel to Lisbon. It is expected that Sir Alex will make changes so the likes of Chris Smalling, Ryan Giggs, Dimitar Berbatov and Ji-Sung Park are all pushing to start after missing out on the win at Bolton.
Head to Head
Manchester United and Benfica have a long and rich history against one another, including playing in the 1968 European Cup Final at Wembley.
They have met recently too, the last time coming in the 2006/07 season when they were paired in the same Group. Louis Saha scored the only goal in a 0-1 win for United in that game.
They also played in the 2005/06 season, Benfica beating United 2-1 here to knock United not only out of the Champions League, but out of Europe as a whole as they finished bottom of the Group.
United have won 6 of the 7 meetings between the sides overall.
Prediction
I always feared this would be the biggest test for United in the Group as they face a Benfica side with plenty of guile and creativity in the midfield, the one area where I still think United are vulnerable.
However, United have been known for their tough defence away from home in the Champions League, especially last season when they just did not concede goals on their travels. This may be a little bit more of a problem this season as they travel to Lisbon without their first choice centre backs and also blooding in David De Gea and Benfica will surely be pushing to make the inexperience in the United backline a telling factor.
With the changes expected in the United side, I think Sir Alex Ferguson will set out a team that is capable of defending for long periods of the game as a draw will suit the Red Devils just fine. That means the likes of Park and Giggs will aid the team with their experience.
Wayne Rooney has also been in fantastic form so this could be a risky proposition, but the Under 2.5 Goals looks the best proposition in this game. It is priced at the same as the United win, something I am not convinced they will do, and would have been a winner 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League.
While United do have an impressive away record in the competition, I have a lot of respect for Benfica who should be fired up in their first game in front of their home support... United may sneak it late, but I expect them to do a lot of defending and look to keep their clean sheets in away games intact so Unders looks the call.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Benfica 0-1 Manchester United
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95
