Champions League
2011-09-13 - Borussia Dortmund vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Champions League Match Day 1
Tuesday 13 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund come into the season as the reigning Bundesliga Champions, but it will be interesting to see if they are a one-hit wonder, or if this young team really is one that will start a new dominance in Germany. They will also take part in their first Champions League season for 9 years when they open up Group F in front of their passionate support.
Dortmund has started inconsistently in their domestic League, going 2-1-2 over the first 5 games of the season. That leaves them down in 11th position in the Bundesliga, but this is a competitive League and they are only 5 points behind Bayern Munich in first place with every team having lost at least 1 game this season. They are 2-0-1 at home in their opening games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 3.
In fact, the defeat to Hertha Berlin at home at the weekend was their first in 18 in all competitions. Of those 18 games, Borussia Dortmund have won 13 including against the likes of Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen and Hamburg.
The team were 2-1-1 in the Europa League last season but failed to get out of the group stage as Sevilla and Paris St Germain qualified at their expense. They only lost 1 of their 8 European games last season.
Julian Koch and Lucas Barrios are both out, while Marvin Bakalorz and Patrick Owomoyela are doubtful. Nuri Sahin has moved on to Real Madrid during the Summer, but the biggest danger could come through Mario Goetze who has been described as the 'German Lionel Messi'.
Arsenal
Arsenal may just have started the healing process from their devastating 8-2 defeat at Old Trafford by picking up their first League win of the season on Saturday, but there were still some concerns about the number of chances Swansea created in that game and questions remain whether Arsene Wenger has done enough to replace the loss of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri.
The 1-0 win over Swansea at the weekend means Arsenal have now picked up 4 points from their opening 4 games of the season and they, like Dortmund, sit in 11th position in their domestic League. Arsenal are 1-1-2 this season, but are only 0-1-1 away from home, although they did beat Udinese 1-2 in Italy to qualify for the Champions League Group Stage.
Arsenal reached the last 16 of this competition last season before being beaten by Barcelona, the eventual Champions. However, their away form in the Champions League is not much to write home about, having lost 6 of their last 8 on their travels. The Gunners lost 3 of their 4 away games in Europe last season, and conceded at least 2 goals in each of those defeats.
Thomas Vermaelan, Jack Wilshire and Abou Diaby are long term injuries and have not travelled to Germany. To make matters a little more difficult, Aaron Ramsey and ex-Dortmund player Tomas Rosicky have also failed to travel. Mikel Arteta, Yossi Benayoun, Per Mertesacker and Andre Santos will all be hoping to make their European debuts for Arsenal.
Head to Head
These two teams met the last time Borussia Dortmund played in the Champions League in the 2002/03 season.
Dortmund won their home game against Arsenal 2-1 with Tomas Rosicky scoring both goals for the home team.
Prediction
I am actually a little surprised by the prices being offered from the layers for this game- I thought Arsenal would be overestimated and would be the favourites, but now I am guessing they are being underestimated to be such a big underdog.
The problem for me is that I can't back Arsenal away from home in Europe until they prove they are capable of doing better than they have been over the last couple of seasons.
Some may point to the win in Udinese as proof of the Gunners ability on their travels, but they were fortunate to being only 1-0 down at half time in that game, and as soon as they equalised, it demoralised the home side that had to score 3 times to win. Also, there is no doubt in my mind that the penalty save at 1-1 by Wojciech Szczesny changed the game in their favour.
The lack of clean sheets for Arsenal away from home in Europe is another worry considering the amount of chances the defence gave up to Swansea.
Borussia Dortmund have their own issues in their domestic League to contend with, but they have been strong at home although I think they are a little short to interest me.
With the doubts surrounding both teams mentally, I have a feeling we will see an open game, one which should see a few goals. Arsenal had conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 away games in the Champions League before the 1-2 win in Udinese, while Dortmund's home games this season have an average of 3 goals per game.
At odds against, I will go for Over 2.5 Goals.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Arsenal
