NFL Football
2011-09-12 - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Monday 12 September 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
Monday Night Football begins for a new season as ESPN celebrate the fact they will hold on to this slot until the 2021 season at least after inking a new deal with the NFL. It should be a fascinating first game as two AFC East rivals take each other on as New England visit Miami.
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots looked like they were the cream of the AFC last season as they won all their games in the 2nd half of the season and they locked up the Number 1 seed in the Conference. However, they were shocked by AFC East rivals, the New York Jets, in the Divisional Round meaning they are 0-2 in their latest Play Off games, both coming at home.
The Patriots decided to bring in some veterans into the team to help solidify their chances to win the SuperBowl this year. Albert Haynesworth looks like a calculated risk and he could have a big impact alongside Vince Wilfork in the centre of their Defensive Line. Andre Carter is another veteran signing to improve the Defense that was the definite weak point of the team last year.
Another big trade was for Chad Ochocinco, giving Tom Brady more options on the Offense that is already loaded with players like Deion Branch, Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Rumours also persis that they may be interested in bringing back Randy Moss who is 'retired' for now.
Ochocinco has struggled to get on the same page as the rest of the Offense during the preseason games, but his work ethic seems far different to his time at Cincinnati and he has stated how happy he is at this organisation.
Tom Brady has had a fantastic time in recent visits to Miami after struggling for most of his previous visits. He has thrown 9 TD passes, 2 Interceptions and a 138.8 QB Rating in those games.
The key for the Miami Dolphins this season will be how much their vaunted Defense can keep them in games. With Vontae Davis and Sean Smith at the CB positions, they have a tandem that should be able to hold their own even if they are not 'the best tandem' in the League as they think they are.
Cameron Wake is coming in off a big season where he reached 14 Sacks, and Jason Taylor has returned to his spiritual home for a 3rd stint with the Dolphins.
Even with the talent on the Defense, they only managed to create 19 turnovers last season, which is a record low for the franchise. This is an area they will look to improve so they can perhaps help the Offense by creating short fields.
The Dolphins fans were not impressed with the fact that Chad Henne remains with the keys to the Offense, going so far to chant 'We want Orton' during training camp when talks with Kyle Orton looked to be breaking down. Henne is in his 3rd year as a starter and will definitely be on the chop block if he doesn't improve his play from last season.
Henne will have to learn a new Offense as Brian Daboll takes over the play calling as Offensive Co-Ordinator from Dan Henning. The QB will also have a new backfield when he looks behind him as Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas will be given the carries now Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have moved on.
Thomas is likely to miss this game so former Kansas City Chief, Larry Johnson, will back up Bush. The Offensive Line also has a few issues with injury and inexperience blighting them and they will need to be at their best to give Henne time to make plays.
Head to Head
New England have won 4 of the last 5 games between these rivals. They have won the last 2 games against the spread, but have split the last 6.
New England are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 4 visits to Miami and they have scored at least 41 points in all 3 wins.
The road team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games.
Other Interesting Notes
Miami are 17-45-1 against the spread in their last 63 games at home. They are 3-11-2 against the spread in their last 16 games in September.
The Dolphins are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games as the underdog. They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
New England are 44-21-3 against the spread in their last 68 road games. They are 22-10 against the spread in their last 32 games as the road favourite.
The Patriots are 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
86% of the wagers made in Vegas have been for the New England Patriots.
Prediction
This is a tough spot for Miami and I am going to favour the New England Patriots to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Patriots have so many Offensive weapons that it will be hard for the Dolphin Defense, no matter how good it is, to cover all the options with the quick passes being particularly tough for them to defend.
Second, I think the Miami running game has been downgraded from last season, especially with Thomas being out injured too, and that is going to put more pressure on Chad Henne to make plays with the likes of Wilfork, Carter and Haynesworth penetrating the backfield.
Third, if Henne gets off to a tough start, you can be sure the Dolphins fans will let him know about it, putting more pressure on the QB and possibly leading to more mistakes.
Finally, New England did have their struggles playing in Miami but they seem to have rectified that with 3 wins from 4 visits and scoring heavily in each of those wins.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Miami Dolphins 17-38 New England Patriots
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New England Patriots -7 Points @ 1.95
