NFL Football
2011-09-11 - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 11 September 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NFC West was the worst Division in Football last season, but it could be the most competitive solely because any of the teams can win it as long as they lose the least amount of games. Last season the Seattle Seahawks reached the Play Offs with a losing record, winning 7-9, but that was better than the San Francisco 49ers 6-10, their 8th consecutive losing season.
The 49ers fired Mike Singletary as the Head Coach but brought in Jim Harbaugh who just coached Stanford to a 12-1 record. Harbaugh's first task was to announce Alex Smith as the starter- the former Number 1 pick in the Draft has struggled in his time in the Bay Area and it is tough to ask him to learn yet another new Offensive system.
A lot of the pressure of moving the chains will be on the shoulders of Frank Gore, the running back who returns from injury and seems to be in a great place mentally. Gore has really enjoyed his previous games against Seattle, rushing for an average of 148 yards per game in his 4 career starts at home against them.
Braylon Edwards has been signed from the New York Jets to add some quality in the receiving corps and there are big hopes that Michael Crabtree can fulfil his potential starting from now.
Seattle finished 27th in the NFL in Pass Defense last season and that is an area they will like to improve in a QB dominated League. However, it is the turnover on Offense that could really decide if they are going to repeat as NFC West Champions.
The Seahawks have let go of Matt Hasselbeck and turned the keys of the Offense to Tavaris Jackson who was traded from Minnesota. Jackson did not really do enough for the Vikings in his time there, but Pete Carroll and Seattle seem to be really high on him.
He is supported by Sidney Rice, another played traded from the Vikings, and their chemistry could be key. Rice is a doubt for Sunday though after missing the majority of last season.
Robert Gallery (G) is another player that is likely missing on Sunday.
Head to Head
The two teams have split the last 6 meetings both straight up and against the spread.
San Francisco have won the last 2 meetings at Candlestick Park, including a 40-21 win last season in a match where the 49ers dominated the turnover category and created short fields for their Offense.
The home team has won the last 4 games against the spread.
Other Interesting Notes
Seattle are 16-36-1 against the spread in their last 53 road games.
They are 6-20 against the spread in their last 26 games as the road underdog.
They are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 road games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Division underdogs are 20-9 against the spread in Week 1 when they are given 3.5 points or more.
54% of the wagers in Vegas have been placed on the 49ers.
Prediction
Neither team looks particularly capable of putting lots of points on the board but I do like the 49ers to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I expect Jim Harbaugh will have the team and fans fired up for a big performance in his first home game. The fact it is against a Divisional rival should only motivate the team more.
Second, San Francisco has a lot more continuity in their team on both sides of the ball than Seattle who have had another season with plenty of turnover and have lost some really experienced veterans.
Third, I am not high on Alex Smith, but I really don't like Tavaris Jackson as a starting QB.
Finally, I think the 49ers Defense is a little more opportunistic and will create turnovers that can give the team short fields to exploit, as they did last time they met at Candlestick Park, and that should allow the 49ers enough points to cover.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
San Francisco 49ers 24-13 Seattle Seahawks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Francisco 49ers -5.5 Points @ 2.00
