NFL Football
2011-09-11 - Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 11 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two AFC North Rivals meet one another with the aim that this season will be another one of transition as they look to get closer to the uber-professional Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers who look good to fight out the Division title amongst themselves this season.
The Cleveland Browns are at least one, possibly two, seasons ahead of the Bengals in their process of getting a competitive team together. The new kick off rules has taken away one of the key elements of their Special Teams as they had one of the best kick off returners in the League in Joshua Cribbs. Cribbs is now expected to be more involved in the Offense.
Colt McCoy will be leading the Browns at QB and he played well enough in his starts last season to suggest Cleveland could have their QB for the next decade. He started 8 of the final 11 games they played as injuries moved him up from 3rd on the QB depth chart and he finished with 6 TD passes and 9 Interceptions.
McCoy travelled to meet Brett Favre during the lockout so he could get a better feel of the West Coast Offense the Browns will be running. He will be hoping the ideas and adjustments that were offered to him in advice will help him out. A bigger help will be Peyton Hillis in the backfield if he can replicate last years breakout season, and there are big things expected of rookie Greg Little (WR).
The Defense was solid under Rob Ryan last season, and the Browns do not expect a drop off now their former Defensive Co-Ordinator is down in Dallas. It will be this unit that can make a big difference as they face a much changed Bengals team.
Cincinnati have lost Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens in the off season and will be starting a receiving corps that has had 20 combined starts amongst them. AJ Green was the 4th Overall Pick in the Draft, and there are big things expected of him considering his size and speed.
The Bengals would have preferred if they had a veteran QB throwing passes to Green, but they go into the new season with 2nd Round Pick Andrew Dalton with the keys to the Offense. Dalton has struggled in the preseason and there are concerns about his completion percentage of just 50 to suggest he is in line for a sharp introduction to the NFL.
The Defensive unit has also lost one of the best CBs in the form of Jonathan Joseph and it looks like a tough season all around for the Bengals who will do well to improve on their 4-12 record from last year.
Head to Head
Cincinnati have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these Divisional rivals.
Cleveland won here last season, but the Bengals had won 2 in a row before that.
The underdog is 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 contests between the teams.
Other Interesting Notes
Cleveland are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favourite.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread at home. And the Browns have lost their last 4 games against the spread within the Division.
Cincinnati are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points. The Bengals are 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 games as the underdog since 2009.
Divisional underdogs who are given 3.5 points or more are 20-9 against the spread since 2000 in Week 1.
86% of the wagers made in Vegas have been for the Cleveland Browns.
Prediction
I am going to back the young Cleveland Browns to cover the spread against the even younger and inexperienced Cincinnati Bengals.
The problem for Cincinnati is that they have a very young QB who has not shown any sort of accuracy, and that will kill in the NFL. The Cleveland Defense should be able to pick off a couple of passes from Andrew Dalton and set up short fields for their Offense.
The Bengals Defense is also downgraded from last season and Peyton Hillis could have a big game against a team that does not defend the run very well.
All in all, I am struggling to see the Bengals put up more than 10 points and that should allow Cleveland to cover once they pick up a couple of key turnovers.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cleveland Browns 24-10 Cincinnati Bengals
