NFL Football
2011-09-11 - Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 11 September 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Last season would have shown Norv Turner and his San Diego Chargers that they cannot afford another slow start as their annual struggles in September and October saw them miss the Play Offs after recovering the two previous seasons to sneak in. They fact a rebuilding Minnesota Vikings team that has lost some key players in the offseason and are no longer the trendy pick to go all the way to the SuperBowl.
In fact, this season looks to be one where the Vikings will attempt to finish above the basement in the tough NFC North where the reigning SuperBowl Champions, the Green Bay Packers, are expected to dominate but teams like the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions are either tough or vastly improved.
Both teams started with similar 2-5 records last year, but it was San Diego who tried to turn things around by finishing with 7 wins from their last 9 games to end the season 9-7. Minnesota had problems for the entire season, with injuries to Brett Favre after a poor start and bringing in Randy Moss for 3 games before deciding he needed to be traded out of the organisation in disgrace for a second time.
The most disappointing thing for San Diego was the fact they were in the upper reaches of both the Offense and Defense statistics. Philip Rivers had a great season, throwing for his most yards in his career and also having 30 TDs to just 13 Interceptions.
Rivers also has the added bonus of being able to throw to Antonio Gates, who missed much of the back end of last year, and Vincent Jackson. Jackson held out last season for a new contract and missed all but 3 of the games.
The Defense has also been upgraded with the signings of Takeo Spikes and Bob Sanders and the Chargers will feel they are in line for a big season.
The Chargers did commit 29 turnovers last season, something they are looking to rectify this season, while the Special Teams let them down many times at the beginning of the season and put the team in a hole that they could not escape.
Brett Favre threw 19 Interceptions in his final season in Minnesota last year as the team finished 6-10. They committed 37 turnovers in all, the 2nd most in the NFC and there were also issues with the Defensive Line that could not get the penetration in the opposition backfield that they were known for.
The Vikings have brought in Donovon McNabb to lead the team at QB. McNabb struggled in Washington last season, even having his intelligence questioned when being pulled for not understanding the 2 minute Offense. He will not have Sidney Rice to throw to, so I expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.
Percy Harvin will also be hoping for a big season after missing many games last year with migraines. A lot of Minnesota's success this season will be down to the play of Peterson and Harvin.
A big loss for the Vikings in this game will be Kevin Williams who is suspended for the first 2 games of the season. His presence in the middle of the Defense has been a staple of recent seasons and it does leave a BIG hole to fill.
Head to Head
Being in opposite Conferences means these teams will rarely play outside of a 4 year period.
The last time they met was in 2007 in Minnesota, with the Vikings rumbling through Adrian Peterson to an 18 point win.
Their last meeting in San Diego was in 2003 in a game the Chargers won by 14 points.
Other Interesting Notes
San Diego are 35-17 against the spread in their last 52 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.
Minnesota are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games on the road. They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
The Vikings have lost their last 4 games against the spread when given between 3.5 and 10 points on the road. They are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.
Surprisingly, as much as 71% of the wagers made in Vegas has been on Minnesota.
Prediction
The spread looks very strange to me in a game where I think the home team is better in almost every facet of the match.
San Diego will not have too many difficulties in putting up points as there should not be too much pressure from the Defensive Line of Minnesota which only has Jared Allen from last season now Kevin Williams is out. That will give Rivers time to move the chains and with weapons like Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, I expect they will put up between 28-35 points.
That leaves it down to Donovon McNabb and the Vikings Offense to keep up. The San Diego Defense is looking good this season with the upgrades made and I think they will look to force McNabb to beat them with his arm by loading the box on Adrian Peterson.
The Offensive Line has had it's issues and it will be hard for the Vikings to stop the Chargers getting penetration into the backfield.
Once they get down, I think the Vikings will find it increasingly difficult to move the chains and I can imagine a couple of turnovers at this point will allow the Chargers to close the show.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Diego Chargers 31-13 Minnesota Vikings
