Icelandic Football
2011-09-11 - Fram Reykjavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 18
Sunday 11 September 2011, 14:00 (GMT)
There are only 15 points left for the teams to compete for. Every game will now become vital for the clubs in the top and relegation battle. Other clubs who are in mid table can afford to take it more easy and maybe allow younger players to have a go.
The following game will be crucial for Fram who have all to gain while Breidablik are in a more comfortable position.
Fram Reykjavik
Fram's hopes of staying in the top league are getting very slim. They sit in 11th place with 11 points, 6 points less than Keflavik and 7 points less than Grindavik.
Since Keflavik have a much better goal difference Fram really have to earn 7 more points than Keflavik in the last five rounds. On top of that Keflavik have played one game less than Fram. Bare in mind that Fram have yet to play against Keflavik at home.
Fram overall record is 2 5 10, 13:25. They have been performing good lately but seem to be very unlucky when it comes getting the ball into the net. For example they lost 2-1 at KR in last round after missing a penalty when it was 0-0. KR then managed to score two goals very late into the game. Before that Fram produced a very fine 3-1 victory over Valur at home. That came after a 2-2 draw at Stjarnan where Fram lost their 1-2 lead in the final moments of the game.
Fram are lowest in the home table with 1 2 5, 8:14 and they are pretty similar on the road with 1 3 5, 5:11. They have improved since Samuel Hewson and Steven Lennon joined them and have actually scored in last three matches, a total of 6 goals. After being one of the teams with the lowest over/under ratio Fram's 4 of last 5 games have gone over 2.5 goals.
This game should be an excellent for Fram to close in on Keflavik. Breidablik have been awful on the road and haven't managed to keep a clean sheet all season. Fram's foreign players along with Arnar Gunnlaugsson and their fairly fast wingers should therefore be able to create some chances. Keflavik have a difficult game away at Valur and Fram will know that a victory over the current champions can easily bring them within 3 points of Keflavik.
Their win over Fylkir was absolutely vital since that is Breidablik's only win in last 7 games and they were coming dangerously close to the relegation battle.
Breidablik Kopavogur
The atmosphere at Breidablik, the reigning champions, has been bad lately. After a terrible season their manager, Olafur Kristjansson, has even started to complain about their home game support. Many have just said he's whining and trying to find some excuse for the club's bad results. They currently sit in 7th place with 20 points and an overall record of 5 5 7, 25:30. Breidablik have not kept a single clean sheet all season.
Breidablik have been terrible on the road and after finally managing their first away win at Fylkir they were very lucky to escape with 1-1 draw at home to Valur. Breidablik's away record is 1 3 4, 9:18 compared to 4 2 3, 16:12 when travelling. Their defense has been terrible all season and only Thor and Vikingur have conceded more goals. Breidablik have made up for that by scoring goals and have only failed to score in 3 games. However, their scoring has also slowed down a bit with only 5 goals in last 4 games and failing to score in the two before that.
Being the current champions Breidablik must want to show that their title wasn't just a one hit wonder and they need to earn some more points to finsh the season with some dignity, even though they are quite clear from the relegation zone. Their manager has to get his players well motivated because he knows that Fram will put everything into this game and he needs to make sure his players don't take the game lightly just because the club is sitting in a comfortable place. They should be able to create some chances since Fram will at some point have to open up an take a little risk.
Head to head
The two made a 1-1 draw in Kopavogur earlier this season. Since 2007 Fram and Breidablik have met nine more times. Fram have won 3 times and Breidablik 2 times, so the draws are 4. Fram have won 3 of their 4 last home games against Breidablik. 7 of these 10 games have been over 2.5 goals.
The Betting Verdict
Fram should be much more motivated than Breidablik and they have been performing allright in recent games. They should be able to put pressure on Breidablik's bad defense.
I think the value for Fram is more than fair but I'm going for overs as a main bet since Fram will have to open up and the stats for Fram home games lately including the stats between the two sides support it.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main betTake Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.68 (Bet365)
Side bet
Take Fram to win at good value @ 2.30
