Rugby
2011-09-11 - South Africa vs Wales
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Group D
Sunday, 11th September 2011 - Kickoff 8:30pm (local)
Group D:
South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Namibia, Samoa
A tricky pool to pick as four teams from this pool sufficiently competent to make the knock out stages of this tournament: South Africa, Wales, Samoa and maybe even Fiji.
South Africa are the defending champions and remain the bookies' favourites to top Pool D.
My pick for the most likely sides to progress to the quarter-finals are South Africa and Samoa. The “best of the rest” is Wales, with Fiji offering the possibility of an upset win.
Defence is the key strength for all of the rated teams in Pool D and the one team who can upset the Springboks may be the team who qualifies for post pool finals play.
So, back to the game in hand South Africa v Wales.
South Africa
The Boks may be the current holders of the Webb Ellis Trophy but few (outside of South Africa) are giving them much chance of defending their title.
Coach Peter de Villiers seems to be relying on the same old game-plan that won in 2007 - although the uncharitable would say that's because de Villiers does not have the scope to come up with his own plan.
The Springboks are a side in decline - certainly they're showing their age - and there is rumour of a bit of discord in the camp, with certain players not performing. But I am confident that the Boks will be decisive against Wales however, and quash any issues of predictability and failure to perform.
South Africa’s Play and Players
While the South Africans may be accused of many rugby crimes, no one would suggest that a Springbok player lacks courage and Wales will be on the receiving end of some formidable defensive play should they try to take the game to the Boks.
Given Wellington’s reputation for wind, playing the customary high ball may not be to South Africa’s advantage and I hope they will modify their play accordingly.
The named South African team for the opener contains a total of 815 caps - the most experienced team in Springbok history – The 22 contains 16 players who were part of the victorious 2007 squad, with 11 in the starting 15. It’s now 2011, 5 years on so if you were hoping for some fresh Bok blood, forget it!
One major omission from the starting line up to take on Wales is Bakkies Botha, who is out hamstring niggle. I suspect we’ll see him back against more formidable opposition later in the tournament.
South Africa Line-up :
Frans Steyn; JP Pietersen, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana; Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez; Pierre Spies, Schalk Burger, Heinrich Brussow, Victor Matfield, Danie Rossouw, Jannie du Plessis, John Smit (capt), Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: Bismarck du Plessis, Gurthro Steenkamp, CJ van der Linde, Johann Muller, Willem Alberts, Francois Hougaard, Butch James
Wales
Wales have only beaten South Africa once in 100 years, well actually Wales have beaten South Africa only once in 25 attempts since 1906.
The Welsh side have had three shots at the Boks in the Millennium Stadium in the last three years, and have been unable to beat the South Africans.
Now - they face each other in the Southern Hemisphere - and I don’t like the Welsh chances on Sunday either.
Wales Play and Players
Getting the world champions in your pool and having to play them first up generally means you’ve got to throw everything you've got at them. Wales will definitely give this game a go and Warren Gatland’s side have shown that they are good at soaking up pressure on their 5m line. Whether Wales will achieve something like parity in the scrum is difficult to say.
The Welsh pack has an athletic look about it. With players such as second row Alun Wyn Jones and back rows Sam Warburton and Ryan Jones strong at the breakdown, they should win enough ball to release their backs.
Wales have opted for Rhys Priestland at fly-half in Stephen Jones' injury-enforced absence. The side for Sunday has three changes to the starting XV that beat England 19-9 at Cardiff's Millennium Stadium in the second of three warm-up matches in August.
Wales: Hook; North, J Davies, Roberts, Shane Williams; Priestland, Phillips; James, Bennett, A Jones, Charteris, AW Jones, Lydiate, Warburton (captain), Faletau.
Replacements: Bevington, Burns, B Davies, Powell, Knoyle, Scott Williams, Halfpenny.
HEAD To HeAD
These sides have faced each other five times in the last three years - and the Springboks have won them all
The last three games have all been at Wales' Millennium Stadium where the Boks have won 20-15, 34-31, and 29-25.
Prior to that Wales travelled to the Republic in 2008 and South Africa were far more dominant winning 43-17, and 37-21 and it's these scores that I feel give the best guide to the most likely result on Sunday.
The Picks
Neither side travels too well - often giving their best performances on home soil - but the Springboks have the greater experience of playing in New Zealand.
Despite some of the Bok’s old guard being a couple of years past their best, I’m picking South Africa to beat Wales, and by about 20 points.
As mentioned the odds for a straight Springboks win are 1.17 are banker money given South Africa's win ratio of 24/25 against Wales. If you want bigger odds - take South Africa to cover the -13.5 point handicap.
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The Pick :
South Africa to win by 20 points
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Main Bet :
Take SOUTH AFRICA -13.5 points to win by enough to cover this handicap.
Take SOUTH AFRICA -13.5 points to win by enough to cover this handicap.
