Rugby
2011-09-09 - New Zealand vs Tonga
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Group A
Friday, 9th September 2011 - Kickoff 8:15pm (local)
New Zealand have the home support and enough quality players to field about 3 teams capable of winning the much coveted Webb Ellis trophy.
According to the media - the All Blacks look virtually guaranteed to claim their first World Cup since the inaugural tournament in ‘87 - so is there any point in the other teams even turning up?
Yes! The reputation of the ABs to “choke” may be their main problem.
This generation of All Blacks have grown up seeing their predecessors lose plenty of World Cups away when they’re clearly the best team on the planet ... because when it all comes down to it the RWC is won by the team that wins three Knock-out matches at the end of the tournament.
That means that luck, refereeing decisions, injury problems, and sometime just the bounce of the ball have a big part in deciding who comes out on top and holds up the little golden trophy.
The Pool
Pool A: New Zealand, France, Tonga, Japan, and Canada.
The battle in Pool A is really about the order of the first two spots with New Zealand and France sure to fill the first two places, the order is the only thing to be decided.
The two words that make many of the RWC pool games, like NZ v Tonga, interesting are: Handicap betting.
Tonga’s in form players include captain Finau Maka, Super 15 star Cooper Vuna and Hawkes Bay prop Sona Taumalolo ... good players but hardly a match for the host nation.
All Blacks are not fielding their strongest team for the opener - prefering to use a bit of rotation - and give a start to players like Sonny Bill Williams - who makes headlines for the wrong reason.
The All Blacks do have a big midfield combination to confront their sizeable Tongan opponents, and while I think while the ABs will undoubtedly win, you'll have to be quick to get the 1.02 available at Betsson on the All Blacks to win - so most of us will have to bet on the handicap wager.
The Betting Verdict
Take Tonga with the +59.5 handicap at Ladbrokes.
Also check out Paddy Power's RWC cashback: (Available on all Rugby World Cup Group games) If a Number 11 scores the first try in any of the Rugby World Cup group matches Paddy Power will refund all losing try scorer bets on that match. Applies to 1st tryscorer, last tryscorer and 1st team tryscorer, 1st tryscorer insurebet.
I like the look of Ma'a Nonu as first tryscorer at 7/1 at Paddy Power. The AB selectors have decided to use Richard Kahui on the wing, Ma'a Nonu at centre, with Israel Dagg at fullback, so Nonu is looking promising, and if no 11 does score 1st instead I get my stake back.
The Pick :
New Zealand win, but by less than 60
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Tonga with the +59.5 handicap at Ladbrokes.
