NFL Football
2011-09-08 - New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Thursday 8 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NFL is back and you cannot really ask for much more than seeing the last 2 SuperBowl Champions go up against one another. To make matters tastier, this could easily be the NFC Championship Game in January as the New Orleans Saints travel to the famous Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.
The Green Bay Packers were a popular pick to win the SuperBowl before the season started last year, but sneaked into the postseason courtesy of wins in Week 16 and 17. They then went on a tear, winning games in Philadelphia, Atlanta and Chicago before knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dallas.
New Orleans were another popular pick, but struggled for consistency, mixing big wins over Pittsburgh with disappointing defeats to Cleveland in the regular season. It all came to a head in the Wild Card Round when a seemingly 'bye' in facing Seattle on the road turned into a nightmare as they were beaten.
The match brings a lot of excitement to the table as we have two of the six best QBs in the League facing each other in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Rodgers was exceptional in the postseason to really raise his profile, but had had a strong regular season considering the poor running ability of the team. Brees struggled a little bit last season, but I am putting it down to an unspecified knee injury and I expect big things from him too.
A big plus for Green Bay during the NFL lockout is the fact they are bringing a lot of pieces back from last season and not needing to integrate new signings. New Orleans covered these problems by having some of the best attended players-only workouts in the League that were set up by Brees.
Big news for Green Bay is their Tight End, Jermichael Finley, is back from a serious injury that ruled him out for much of last season, and the running game has a returning Ryan Grant.
New Orleans have some new pieces in the backfield in the forms of Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram who will help Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush was traded to the Miami Dolphins, but his impact has been minimal since being drafted.
Will Smith is a big loss on the Defensive side of the ball for New Orleans as he is their leading sacker in 4 of the last 6 seasons. Smith is suspended until Week 3.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the teams since November 2008 when New Orleans crushed Green Bay by 22 points at home.
The Saints also won on their last visit to Green Bay in September 2006.
The favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games between the teams.
Other Interesting Notes
Green Bay are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite.
They are 20-8-1 against the spread in the last 29 games they have played overall.
The Packers are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games in September
New Orleans are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games overall.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 Week 1 games.
The Saints are 1-4 against the spread in their last 6 road games.
They are 27-19 against the spread in their last 46 games as the road underdog since 2000.
Drew Brees is 30-19 against the spread in his last 49 games as the underdog.
73% of the money in Vegas has gone down on the Packers.
The SuperBowl Champions are 8-0 straight up in season openers, but are 0-2 against the spread.
Prediction
For a long time, I really liked the New Orleans Saints to cover in this match, because I am really high on their Offense.
The problem is the more and more I think about it, the more I fail to understand how they are going to slow down the Green Bay Offense.
With Will Smith missing out, I think Rodgers will get enough time to find one of the many options he has on the Offense and I am sure they are going to put up plenty of points.
The Packers Defense is a lot stronger than their Saints' counterparts too, especially since the unit is missing Smith. I can see them making one or two more stops as the Saints have problems with Marques Colston and Robert Meachem being a little banged up but likely to start, while Lance Moore will miss out.
Both Defensive Co-Ordinators like dialling up some exotic schemes, and so I think we will see a couple of turnovers in a high scoring game.
However, at the end of the day, I see the Packers coming out on top by between 7 and 10 points.
Don't go mad on stakes though as Drew Brees is not to be underestimated when considered the underdog and the Saints have enough firepower to keep things close.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 34-27 New Orleans Saints
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers - 4 Points @ 1.92
