EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - ROMANIA V FRANCE

Euro 2012

2011-09-06 - Romania vs France

A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt

Romania vs France
Football: Euro 2012 Qualifiers, Group D
Venue: "National Arena", Bucuresti
Tuesday 6th September – Kickoff time: 21:30 GMT+2

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Romania (4th)

Romania desperately needs to win in order to keep their chances for the second place at least, France is looking way above any team from this group, so normally they should be the ones to qualify from the first place. Second placed Bosnia will be playing at home against Belarus, a team they already beat last Friday in Minsk.

However, the odds are against the Romanians, the last time they’ve beat France was back in 1972 in a match played in Guadalajara. Since then, the two teams have played nine games, France winning 5 of them.

Romania played Friday in Luxembourg, not surprisingly winning the game with 2-0, both goals being scored by Gabriel Torje, who by the way will miss this game because of a suspension. Luxembourg had some chances in the beginning of the game, but then Romania took over the lead in the game and the goals came naturally.

Now, Romania’s national team has been going through some radical changes lately, Victor Piturca was re-appointed as head-coach, replacing Razvan Lucescu and he has already made some drastic decisions, like sending star players Adrian Mutu and Gabriel Tamas home from the training camp, saying that they won’t play again for Romania as long as he’s the coach.

I would say that the current squad is modest, there’s no one to make the difference in a game. Dorin Goian (Glasgow Rangers) and Chirieches (Pandurii) will be the central backs, the first one is great at high balls, but can be easily outplayed when the ball is on the ground, while Chiriches has no international experience at all. Benzema should find a way to crack this defense, despite having two excellent players that completes the defense, right back Sapunaru (FC Porto) and Razvan Rat (Shakhtar Donetsk).

The midfield is rather limited, I don’t see them keeping the possession against a France team that will make a suffocating pressing, at least until they are in advantage. We’ll have Ciprian Marica from Shalke in front, but he hasn’t played a lot at his club, supported by Gigel Bucur from Kuban Krasnodar, who I think has failed to impress in his appearances at the national team so far.

Probable Romania line-up :
Tătăruşanu - Săpunaru, Chiricheş, Goian, Raţ - Nicoliţă, Lazăr, Bourceanu, Tănase - Marica, Bucur

France (1st)

Laurent Blanc is looking to be a better choice for the France national team than his predecessors and he’s starting to turn this team into the great team it once was. Blanc made a fine job at Bordeaux and I can’t see why he wouldn’t succeed at the national team as well.

France is leading the group D, having 16 points after seven games and will probably win it, because they’ll play at home against Albania and Bosnia.

The first match between these two was won by France, but Romania hold on until the 80th minute, when substitutes Gourcuff and Remy scored in the 2-0 victory. Romania actually hit the post in few minutes before the first goal, when Sapunaru couldn’t find the goal from a few meters.

France is coming after a victory against Albania, a game that pointed out that Kaboul is not what France needs at the moment, he made an awful lot of mistakes, including one that led to Albania’s second half goal, even though it wasn’t entirely his fault. There's a good chance that Kaboul will be replaced by Rami for this match. Evra and Nasri both have some medical problems, but there’s a good chance that we’ll see them today.

Probable France line-up :
Lloris - Sagna, Rami, Abidal, Evra - Nasri, Diarra, M'Vila, Ribery - Remy, Benzema

The Betting Verdict

The match will be played in the newly built National Arena, the stadium that will also host the final of the 2012 Europa League and this match is the first one ever played here. It should be a lot of enthusiasm in the crowd, but on the other hand, the public from Bucharest is more demanding, so it may not be only cheering if France gets the lead.

It has been repeated over and over again here, that the French players are better individually, but Romania can compensate by excelling in things like organization, determination and some other clichés. I just think that France is superior in every compartment and they would have to catch their worst day to lose here.

Romania needs to win this game, a draw would not help them at all, so I imagine they will need to risk at some point and I can’t see Benzema or Ribery not taking advantage of that fact. Despite France’s defense looks shaky now and then, I can’t see Marica or Bucur getting a lot of chances today.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take France to win at 1.98 Pinnacle
Confidence: 8/10