Euro 2012
2011-09-06 - Latvia vs Greece
A Sports Betting Pick by JasonK
Football : UEFA : Euro 2012 Qualification
Tuesday 6th September 2011- Kickoff 19:30
A win for Greece here would be a huge step towards the qualification and it's hard to see the hosts stopping the Greeks.
Match Analysis
After getting 3 points away at Israel last Friday Greece are lying top in group F having one point advantage over chasing Croatia. A win in Riga not only will secure top 2 finish for Fernando Santos' team but also would mean Greece can afford to draw against Croatia in a deciding match next month.
This is a great chance for Greece and I think they should take it especially after a morale-boosting win against Israel and considering the strength of their opponents.
Latvia are lying 5th having 7 points after 7 games what is only good enough to be ahead of Malta in the standings.
The reason for the low performance is very simple - the generation of players who enjoyed a historical success qualifying for EURO 2004 in Portugal is gone now. With no chance for qualification, coach Starkovs can afford to experiment with young players. The problem is these players are just slightly better than the average player.
To me Latvia have just 3 decent players at the moment. Two of them, Cauna (CSKA Moscow) and Gorkss (QPR) have no chance for starting XI football (in fact neither of them can enjoy regular bench place) in their clubs, and only goalkeeper Vanins feels good in Sion (although, was dropped to the bench recently for no obvious reasons).
Last Friday Latvia were able to beat Georgia away from home, but the game was very one sided. Georgia created 5-6 great chances, hit the woodwork twice and spend at least 65% of time with the ball. The only goal of the game came from Cauna's free kick when a player didn't even attempt to have a shot - his cross was fumbled into the own net by Georgian goalie.
Meanwhile, I can't say Greece are playing spectacular football, but they are solid, especially in defence (3 goals allowed in 7 games). Obviously, they are better in class and the reverse fixture last year in Athens was one way traffic. It finished only 1-0, but you just need to have a look at the attempts on goal and corners stats to have a right idea about that match: attempts 17-1, corners 11-1.
Also we didn't forget Greece enjoyed 5-2 win against Latvia in WC 2010 qualification campaign. (these teams are in the same group again for WC 2014 qualifying as well!)
The Betting Verdict :
So, higher motivation, more experience and different class - Greece should have more than enough to cancel Latvian home soil advantage.
Probably, there is a risk of a boring 0-0 draw, but I'd take this risk for a chance to almost double up my initial stake and knowing the visitors will be in total control during the whole 90 minutes.
The Statistics :
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