Euro 2012
2011-09-02 - Bulgaria vs England
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Euro 2012 Qualifier
Friday 2 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:15pm
This game is live on TV
Bulgaria
Bulgaria's chances of playing in Poland and the Ukraine next Summer are hanging by a thread so thin that anything barring a win would see them virtually assured of having to watch Euro 2012 on TV. Even a point would not be good enough if Montenegro win in Wales on the same night.
Lothar Mattheus will remember how his Germany team broke England hearts in the 1990 World Cup Semi Final and he has a chance to seriously dent their chances of playing in the next international tournament.
It was a bad start to the group that has led to Bulgaria finding themselves in a position where qualification is unlikely. They lost their opening 2 games, 1 in England and at home to Montenegro without scoring a goal and found themselves behind the black ball. A win in Wales was followed by a home draw with Switzerland and a decent draw in Montenegro.
Alexander Tunchev is back in the squad after a 2 year period since obtaining his last international cap. Georgi Bozhilov and Tsvetomir Tsonkov have both been included for the first time.
England
Bad draws at Wembley during these qualifiers have put England in a difficult position, but one where their destiny is still in their own hands. It is almost inconceivable in England that the national team would fail to qualify for their 2nd European Championship in a row, so maximum points are a must from their 2 qualifiers over the next few days.
England have already won in Switzerland and Wales during this campaign as well as a convincing home win over Bulgaria, but it is home draws against Switzerland and Montenegro that has left them in an awkward position. They currently top the group with 11 points, but only thanks to a superior goal difference to Montenegro and are to visit that country next month.
Fabio Capello is well aware of the need to pick up 6 points from this visit to Bulgaria and then the home game with Wales as that will allow the team to draw in Montenegro and book their tickets to Poland/Ukraine 2012.
Manchester United provide 3 uncapped players to the squad in the forms of Phil Jones, Chris Smalling and Tom Cleverley, but only Smalling is pushing for a start at the problematic right back position. Ashley Young and Wayne Rooney are both expected to start after a very positive start to the domestic season.
Head to Head
Bulgaria's defeat at Wembley earlier in the qualifiers means they are now 0-4-5 against England in their history, but they have only lost 1 of their 3 home games against them.
They last played in Sofia in 1999 during the Euro 2000 qualifiers and it ended 1-1.
Prediction
Bulgaria have struggled for goals at home during this campaign and it may not get any easier against an England team that will be looking for the full complement of points.
However, they are sure to try and make things difficult for England and will not give up the points easily. Bulgaria have proved tough to beat at home in the last few seasons, drawing with the likes of Italy in the last qualifying campaign here.
England have been much better away from home in the last 2 campaigns, winning comfortably in Croatia, Belarus and Switzerland, but they will feel additional pressure of knowing they need a result here. Still, many of these players should be used to those expectations and I expect they will be good enough to come through.
The prices on the away win are ridiculously short in my opinion, especially considering Bulgaria's recent results in competitive games at home.
Therefore, I think the 1.75 on offer for Under 2.5 Goals looks a much better option. Bulgaria have struggled for goals at home during these qualifiers, but they don't concede too many goals either.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bulgaria 0-1 England
