NCAA Football
2011-09-02 - TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Friday 2 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Gary Patterson has made TCU a real big player in College Football, leading the team to unbeaten records in the regular season since 2008, but they are ranked as low as 14 in the preseason rankings this year as it is all change in Texas.
Casey Pachall will be given the keys to the Offense as the new QB following Andy Dalton's move into the NFL. Dalton is not the only player that will not return as the Horned Frogs have lost half of their starters on both sides of the ball.
Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker and Waymon James are all coming back this year which will be a big help for Pachall considering they combined for 2300 yards and 23 TDs last season.
Both Pachall and Wesley have seen their status upgraded to probable after missing some practice time over the last couple of weeks.
The TCU Defense led the FBS in yards allowed and points allowed last season but that unit has lost 6 starters. However, the likes of Tank Carder and Tanner Brook do return to provide some continuity for the new starters.
Baylor played in their first Bowl game for 16 years last season and will be hoping to build behind Robert Griffin III who is tipped as a leading candidate for the Heismann Trophy. He threw for a school record number of yards last season, and there may be more weight on his shoulders as Jay Finley, the leading rusher last season, is no longer at the school.
Finley's absence is to be covered by Terrance Ganaway, Glasco Martin and BJ Allen.
Head to Head
TCU crushed Baylor by 35 points at home last season in their first meeting since 2007.
The Horned Frogs have now won 3 in a row against the Bears since 2006.
TCU are 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 meetings between the schools.
Other Interesting Notes
Baylor are 18-38 against the spread in their last 56 games as the home underdog.
They have lost their last 5 games against the spread as the home underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
TCU are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 non-Conference games.
Prediction
TCU's program under Gary Patterson has been very impressive, but I am a little concerned with how they will react to the huge number of changes on the starting line up this season. There is a significant dropoff in terms of the QB position and it could be a while before the Offense can click.
Baylor are expected to improve on their 7-6 record last season and have a top QB in the form of Robert Griffin III. Their continuity from last season could allow them to catch TCU cold here and the thirst for revenge from their beatdown last season will also inspire them to keep this close in my opinion.
With all the doubt about how the new starters will fit into the TCU system, I will back the Bears to keep it close.
The Pick :
Baylor Bears 17-20 TCU Horned Frogs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Baylor Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.92