CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - BENFICA V TWENTE

Champions League

2011-08-24 - Benfica vs Twente

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Benfica v Twente
Football : European Champions League 2nd Leg
Wednesday 24 August 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

---

Benfica

Benfica will be happy to have come back from Holland with a 2-2 draw last week and are now the favourites to make it back to the group stages of the Champions League. It was also nice to hear Jorge Jesus, the manager, talking about how he wants his side to attack and put the tie to bed rather than hoping to keep a clean sheet that would put them through anyway.

It was actually good fun to watch Benfica play last season, with their attacking mindset leading to entertaining games, particularly in the Europa League knockout stages. This season is acting no different and there have been 4 goals in each of their first 3 games played this season. Benfica picked up their first win in the League last weekend when beating Feirense 3-1 here.

Benfica knocked out Trabzonspor in the last Round of the Champions League, with the basis of that result coming in a 2-0 home win. They are 4-1-1 in this competition at home in their last 6 games and they won 2 out of 3 here last season in the group stage.

The team have a 13-1-1 record at the Stadium of Light in their last 15 home European games, although the defeat did come last season in the group stage against Schalke.

Twente

Twente gained a little more experience when they reached the group stage of the Champions League for the first time last season. Although finishing 3rd, the Dutch side showed their confidence in reaching the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and they still feel they can turn things around in Lisbon.

The team is confident they can score at the Stadium of Light and they have plenty of belief after winning their opening 3 games in the Eredivisie this season to lead the way. Twente have also won the Super Cup in Holland as well as beating Vaslui to get through to this stage of the Champions League.

Twente have won their 2 away League games this season, including a thumping 1-5 win at Heerenveen at the weekend. However, they have only won 1 of their 6 Champions League away games and have had bad memories of Lisbon before when losing on away goals to Sporting following a 0-0 draw in this city. The Dutch team have won just 1 of their last 5 European away games, that at Rubin Kazan in the Europa League last season.

Nikolay Mihaylov missed the game at the weekend but is expected to return between the sticks. Nacer Chadli is less likely to make it back from injury after missing the win over Heerenveen.

Prediction

This could actually be a fairly entertaining game for viewers who don't fancy watching the Udinese-Arsenal game and I do expect a few goals to be scored.

Benfica are involved with some high scoring games at the Stadium of Light, yet defensively they do give the opposition chances and Twente are more than capable on evidence from the 1st Leg in taking those chances if they come around.

The only concern I have in terms of goals is whether both sides begin cautiously, with Twente wanting to ensure they don't lose the tie in the first 20 minutes and Benfica perhaps believing they can get the clean sheet that will ensure they progress no matter what else happens.

However, the 1st Leg showed that the attacking abilities of both sides is where their strengths lie and I do think an early goal could lead to an excellent game.

The Over 2.5 Goals has been priced up with the same thoughts in mind, but I think there could be a decent play in picking Over 3.5 Goals. Regardless of who takes the lead, it will mean the game opens up and there will be plenty of chances for a side to be caught on the break.

If it gets to 2-1 either way with 20 minutes left to play, there should be plenty of gaps to exploit for the team with the lead and we could see the killer goal that sends the side through.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

I'll take a chance on Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00