Champions League
2011-08-24 - Udinese vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : European Champions League 2nd Leg
Wednesday 24 August 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Udinese
Most of the Udinese fans that travelled to London last week probably came in with a little bit of trepidation and would have been hoping they still had something to play for when returning to Italy for the 2nd Leg. On the way home, those same fans must have been wondering how their team failed to score in London, let alone how they are losing the tie.
Udinese were excellent in the first leg and it was hard to see they had lost some key players in the Summer. They deserved a lot more than being 1-0 down, but there is plenty of confidence that they can overturn the deficit and move into the Champions League draw on Thursday evening.
Serie A is due to start this weekend, but they will be aware of their strong record at home in the League last season and will hope to transfer that here. Udinese finished with an 11-4-4 record at home, scoring 27 goals and only conceding 16, and it is the latter that will be important in this game.
They beat Inter Milan and Lazio at home last season, but lost to Juventus and Roma, while drawing with Serie A champions Milan. In only 1 of those games did Udinese manage to keep a clean sheet.
Antonio Flora Flores is still missing for Udinese as well as Maurizio Domizzi. Dusan Basta is a doubt and will need a late fitness test.
Arsenal
Arsene Wenger said earlier this Summer that Arsenal could not consider themselves a big club if they sold both Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri, but the former has moved back to Barcelona and the latter is in Manchester having a medical and finalising terms with Manchester City. Talks of a crisis are just media hype at the moment, but an exit from the Champions League would be devastating for the club.
The injuries are piling up at the club and that has resulted in a bad start to the new season, with Arsenal picking up 1 point from their 2 League games and they are yet to score a goal in the League. A 0-2 defeat at the weekend to Liverpool would have some of the fans worried, but they at least have a goal lead coming into this tie.
The win over Udinese was only the 2nd in the last 10 competitive games Arsenal have played. A bigger problem may be the away form that has provided just 1 win in their last 11 in all competitions. It has also been quite a talked about point, but Arsenal have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and that includes at unfashionable clubs like Braga and Olympiakos.
The missing in action list at Arsenal is incredible with the likes of Laurent Koscielny, Kieron Gibbs, Jack Wilshire all out through injury, while Samir Nasri and Nicolas Bendtner have not travelled to Italy as they look to leave the club. There is better news that Robin Van Persie can play after serving a suspension, while Gervinho and Alex Song are available while they serve a domestic ban.
Prediction
It is hard to imagine Arsenal not taking part in the Champions League group stages and I very much doubt Udinese have it in them to knock the Gunners out, although the team is there for the taking.
My concern is that Udinese had a good defensive record at home in Serie A, yet they could not keep clean sheets against the better teams with Inter, Juventus, Roma and Lazio all scoring at their ground.
However, I think the chances of a home win are better than the odds suggest, especially looking at the form Arsenal have displayed on their travels in the Champions League over the last couple of seasons.
Arsenal have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition and that is a hard statistic to ignore, although in only 2 of those games have they failed to score.
Udinese created plenty of chances in the game at the Emirates last week and I think that game may just have sharpened them up enough to score the goals that could win the game.
I have a feeling Arsenal will get on the scoresheet, so I can see a win for the Gunners on the away goals rule, but the pick for the game has to be the Italians.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Udinese 2-1 Arsenal
