English Premier
2011-08-20 - Sunderland vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 20 August 2011 - Kickoff 12pm
Sunderland
Steve Bruce's men suffered their most humiliating day last season when they were crushed in the Tyne-Wear Derby at St James' Park. Bruce has been speaking this week about the fact he would rather finish above Newcastle for the 3rd season in succession than worry about the results in the 2 matches they play against one another, but the fans will demand much more.
The sale of Darren Bent in January and the loss of Danny Welbeck who returned to Manchester United leaves goals as the biggest concern for the Black Cats. The squad has a lot of new arrivals, but the strikeforce still looks a little light to me and is an issue that needs rectifying before the transfer window closes if possible.
Sunderland finished in 10th place in the Premier League last season, but had an average 7-5-7 record at the Stadium of Light, scoring just 25 goals and conceding 27. They were one of the lowest scorers at home in the Premier League with only 4 teams scoring less goals in front of their own fans.
There wasn't much to look forward to as a home spectator towards the end of last season as Sunderland lost 6 of their last 7 games there. A real worry was the fact they conceded 2 or more goals in each of the last 7 games and you can understand why Steve Bruce decided to bring in some defensive reinforcements.
John O'Shea will have a late fitness test to determine if he can make his debut since moving from Old Trafford in the Summer. Asamoah Gyan is available after recovering from the knock that ended his opening day appearance prematurely.
Newcastle United
The disruption at St James' Park in the Summer between the owners, management and playing staff has made Newcastle a potential for relegation this season, although if they show the same desire as they did when drawing with Arsenal last week, they could retain their Premier League status.
Newcastle didn't have a straightforward season back in the top flight last year either, replacing Chris Hughton with Alan Pardew for no real apparent reason. Pardew guided the Magpies into 12th place, and they finished with a 5-5-9 away record, scoring 15 goals and conceding 30. That meant Newcastle, along with Stoke City, were the lowest scorers on their travels in the League.
The team won just 1 of their last 9 away games in the Premier League and they actually lost 3 of their last 5 games. It was the lack of goals that led to so many disappointing results, and they scored just 5 in their last 8 away games.
Hatem Ben Arfa is still missing with an ankle injury, but Shane Ferguson and Sylvain Marveaux are both available after building their fitness in reserve games during the week.
Head to Head
Sunderland may have finished above Newcastle in the last 2 seasons, but that does not take away from the fact they have won just 1 of their last 13 games against their rivals.
The Black Cats have not lost in their last 3 home games against Newcastle since an embarrassing 1-4 defeat here.
Prediction
Derby matches can be very unpredictable, but I find this one to be even more than others.
Sunderland played well at Anfield last week and a similar type of performance should be good enough to grab the 3 points this week, but they seem to have a mental block when playing Newcastle. That could be down to the expectation of the home fans and feeling the pressure and tension from the stands, but it is hard to put a finger on it.
Newcastle did well against Arsenal and some of their new signings looked comfortable in their surroundings. The signing of Demba Ba will be a good one in my opinion, but he will be under pressure to provide the goals that will help keep Newcastle in the top flight.
The one thing I noticed when they play one another is that we generally get to see goals- in fact, 7 of the last 8 games between the two teams has seen both sides make their mark on the scoreboard.
I think we may see yet another game where both teams score as the defences will give chances to the opposition and I feel the players make a couple of mental mistakes knowing how important this game is for the fans.
The Pick :
Sunderland 2-1 Newcastle United
