English Premier
2011-08-21 - Bolton vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 21st August - Kickoff 4:05pm
Bolton
Bolton Wanderers top of the Premiership table! Not many were expecting us to say that at any stage of the season but following the 4-0 away thumping at QPR, Owen Coyle's men sit proudly at the top of the table. Unfortunately for them they host another side joint top; Manchester City who also scored 4 unanswered goals in the drubbing of Swansea. This top of the table clash is the late afternoon Sunday game and should be an entertaining affair with both likes wanting to get the ball down and play.
Many pundits questioned Coyle's management style towards the back of last season, the Wanderers started the season really well for prolonged spells challenged the top 7. However, an extended run in the FA Cup saw the side drop away in the league and eventually they finished incredibly close to the relegation zone in the bottom half of the table.
Some say it was because they took their eye off the league seeking Cup glory but I'm not so sure that's a good excuse. Coyle's side's always play nice pleasant, on the eye football but several times last year they were found out and whilst the side is decent enough they may struggle this year.
Losing winger Lee to a broken leg is a massive problem for Bolton, the Korean was superb last season, his creativity and work rate down the flanks created plenty for the forwards. Matt Taylor another good winger was loaned out before Lee's injury so now there's a lack of width on one side with Petrov expected to carry the work load for the time being. Another loss to the side is that of Elmander and Sturridge, the two combined for 18 of Bolton's 52 goals last year and neither has been properly replaced.
Some will argue that we knew this before the QPR game and they went and scored 4, so what's the problem? Well that day QPR actually started well then crumbled and if you see the highlights I expect most Prem sides would have got 4 that day, especially when you see the own goal from Gabbidon which was truly awful. Against this machine like City side they won't get away with it and whilst at home they will be a handful it's going to be an incredibly tough test.
Team news is that joining Lee on the sidelines will be S Davies, Rickets, Mears and Holden. Holden's loss I didn't mention above is quite important to, he came on leaps and bounds last season and it wasn't that long after he got hurt the defeats starting occurring for this Bolton side.
New loanee Tuncay is hoping his paper work clears in time to play but after the side did well last time I expect Davies to be partnered by Klasnic once more in a 4-4-2. Petrov and Eagles will provide the width with Reo-Coker and Muamba in the middle. The back four is made up of Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Robinson all of which are very solid at this level but the same defence only kept 5 clean sheets all year last season all of which were at home.
Predicted Bolton Lineup:
Jaaskelainen, Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Robinson; Reo-Coker, Muamba, Eagles, Petrov; Klasnic, K Davies.
Manchester City
What a great start for Mancini's men, joint top of the league and their new £38m signing in 20 minutes of football scored twice and made another, all this whilst he "acclimatises" to the league. This is a somewhat frightening side for the rest of the league, no one will want to play City all season and they could make a mockery of their ante post price to win the league come May. The big question remains however, can they keep "clicking" for the whole season and not just for 3-4 game spells.
I make that last point because if we recall last season it was City who were close to United when Chelsea had their 2 month slip up but as soon as they got close they threw points away and never recovered. I say never recovered because they never really got close enough to worry their city rivals and whilst they only came 3rd on goal difference to Chelsea it was a good finish to the year but possibly a few months late.
This year City has started really well despite a shaky opening 20 minutes last Monday night they eventually went up a gear and just blew Swansea away. I think if you get on top of City in spells of say 15 minutes you must score against them. There is soo much talent and strength here that over 90 minutes they will get chances and as Aguero proved on Monday it's highly unlikely that they will waste them.
I would also like to add that despite having a highly talented side their downfall last season came in front of goal ironically. City failed to score in 9 games last year but 5 of these came in the first 13 games of the season. After this bad spell they ended the season strongly and have started this one even better, I think the failed to score stat will be somewhere near 4/5 this year nowhere the 9 we saw last season.
Team news is that Kolo Toure is still banned whilst Tevez(remember him?) and De Jong are doubts. With Aguero in town Tevez appears to be the forgotten man but he's still a City player for the time being and may start this game on the bench. De Jong has a minor foot problem and should start the game, elsewhere Dzeko should start with his new strike partner Aguero. They will be supported by the midfield of Milner, Silva, Yaya Toure and De Jong. At the back it's as you were last time out meaning Kompany and Lescott in the middle with CLichy and Richards either side.
Predicted City Lineup:
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy; De Jong, Milner; Silva, Y Toure, Aguero, Dzeko.
The Betting Verdict
Has the market overreacted to the Bolton win last week? 1.85 For a City win looks massive to me. Last Monday the -1.50 AH at home eventually went off near 2.40, 2.40!!! Don't think we'll see that price again for this team. Sunday's price for a City win is a good one for me, these are the games Champions win and I like their chances.
With Silva and Yaya Toure providing service for Dzeko and Aguero I see lots of problems for the Bolton back line and midfield. Bolton must press for 90 minutes and I think eventually at this early stage of the season it's going to hurt them. With players not at a 100% I can definitely see a goal or two for Mancini's men whilst the back four should handle an attack that overachieved last weekend. Away Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bolton 0-2 Manchester City
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Manchester City at 1.85 to win at Betsson
