English Premier
2011-08-20 - Arsenal vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 20 August 2011 - Kickoff 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Arsenal
While some may consider it a media over-reaction, I am of the belief that Arsenal are in a bit of trouble if they do not invest some of the money they received for Cesc Fabregas into the playing squad. With Samir Nasri close to following the Spaniard out of the door, there looks to be a definite drop off in creativity in the squad and one or two more holes than there was at the beginning of the Summer.
The limp performance, albeit a winning one, against Udinese must have had people sitting up and really taking notice. Arsenal were outplayed by a team that had yet to play a competitive game this season and looked short of ideas in the final third, exactly as they did at Newcastle the week before. A bigger concern may be the fact that Arsene Wenger will have a very similar looking team take to the field on Saturday.
It was at the Emirates Stadium that Arsenal faltered last season and their 11-4-4 record saw the team drop too many points against the lesser lights. It is telling that Arsenal beat Chelsea and Manchester United at home, but failed to beat Blackburn, Sunderland and West Brom.
The Gunners saw an 11 game unbeaten run at home in the League come to an end when Aston Villa won there in the final home game of the season and the team left the field to boos from the home fans. They won just 1 of their final 5 games at home, and worryingly failed to score more than 1 goal in any of their last 6 at the Emirates.
Injuries are really hurting this squad, with the likes of Kieron Gibbs, Jack Wilshire and Abou Diaby all out. Johann Djourou was forced to come off after 12 minutes against Udinese with a hamstring injury and is a doubt, while Alex Song and Gervinho are suspended. Robin Van Persie is back, but Tomas Rosicky will need to pass a late fitness test if he is to play.
Liverpool
Liverpool fans truly believed they could make a real challenge in the Premier League this season and perhaps win their first title for 22 years. However, some of that early optimism would have taken a dent as the side failed to win their first game of the season at Anfield and a top 4 berth may be the best they can hope for.
After spending the bulk of the Fernando Torres fee on the likes of Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll in January, Kenny Dalglish has been backed by the owners in the market over the Summer to bring in the likes of Jose Enrique, Charlie Adam, Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson. However, they looked like a team that is still gelling in the 2nd half of their game with Sunderland that finished 1-1.
Liverpool ended the season with a 5-3-11 record away from home, scoring 22 goals and conceding 30, but there was an upturn in fortunes when Dalglish took over in Janaury. In fact, Liverpool won at Wolves, Chelsea, Sunderland and Fulham while under Dalglish's management.
The Reds remained a little inconsistent in their away games as the season drew to a close and they were 4-1-4 in those games while Dalglish was in charge.
Glen Johnson could be back in the side as he is winning his battle with a thigh injury. Steven Gerrard will not be available until September, but Liverpool have an otherwise full squad to choose from.
Head to Head
Arsenal and Liverpool drew both League games 1-1 last season, with late goals from the away side earning points for their teams.
3 of the last 4 Premier League games at the Emirates between the teams has ended 1-1, with Arsenal taking a 1-0 win in the other.
Liverpool have also earned a 1-1 draw here in the Champions League in that time, but they have now won just 1 of their last 11 games overall against the Gunners.
Prediction
After watching the Udinese game, it is clear why so many people have been backing Liverpool to get the better of Arsenal this week.
The Gunners have looked short of ideas in the final third in their first 2 games this season and it is clear the absence of Fabregas, Nasri and Wilshire is hurting the side.
Theo Walcott and Andrey Arshavin are too inconsistent and the team look remarkably short in central midfield for this game and that is where Liverpool could gain control.
I think the Liverpool price is far too short now considering they have not beaten Arsenal too many times in recent games, but I could not back this Arsenal team either with the shortcomings I have already mentioned.
The market that has appealed to me the most is the Under 2.5 goals market which is priced at a very reasonable 1.80 at Pinnacle.
The last 4 League games have all seen 2 goals or less and while Arsenal look short of creativity, the Liverpool players are still getting used to playing with one another.
This may give the defences an edge here to contain the opposition and I can imagine we will see a tight game on Saturday afternoon.
It seems the price is far too big considering everything I have said and I think the layers have priced it up as if the whole Arsenal team was playing.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 0-1 Liverpool
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 (Pinnacle)
