Icelandic Football
2011-08-15 - Breidablik Kopavogur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league : Round 15
Monday August 15 2011, Kickoff 19:15 (GMT)
The reigning champions host the 3rd placed team from last season. This season has treated them quite differently with the home side not far away from the relegation whilst the latter side seem to be repeating their good results from last season.
This is an important match for both clubs who can’t really settle for split points.
Breidablik Kopavogur
Until last few rounds Breidablik were best of the best at home and worst of the worst away. Now they are 7th at home, but still among the best since the next five sides above them have only one or two points more, and they are now the second worst away with only Vikingur producing worse results on the road.
Breidablik’s current four games run of one draw and three losses have left them all the way down in 9th place with 16 points and they are still not in the clear from relegating even though the 11th place has only eight points. Although their run has been quite bad lately one must consider that they have met leaders KR Reykjavik and 3rd placed FH Hafnarfjordur who have been on an excellent run.
Breidablik were very unlucky to lose 2-3 away against Stjarnan Gardabaer and in last round they drew 1-1 away against Grindavik after leading at halftime.
This time Breidablik don’t have to worry about their away ghost since they play at home where they have a good record of 4 1 2, 14:9, compared to 0 3 4, 7:17 on the road. What is really worrying for them is that while they still haven’t kept a clean sheet their goalscoring has gone down with only three goals in last four game compared to nine goals in the four games before that and a total of 21 goals over the season.
With the second worst defense in the league Breidablik can not afford to lose their track in scoring goals and they know they will have to start finding the net again if things aren’t to go even worse for them. against IBV they will be up against the second strongest defense in the league so it’s imperial that they will put everything they got into their attack and they need to get their key striker, Kristinn Steindorsson, on fire again as soon as possible.
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Lately IBV have been getting a bit unstable and it seems that their high pressure defending tactics aren’t working so well as they did. After losing at Grindavik they came back to win at Fram where they didn’t play well but then came on very strong to win at Fylkir only to then just making the draw at home against Valur where they played very bad and were extreamly lucky to get away with one point. Even their manager apologised to Valur after the game.
Since their run hasn’t been any worse IBV have managed to sit in 2nd place with 26 points, four points behind leaders KR who have played one less game. IBV’s overall record is 8 2 3, 20:11 and on the road they are 4 0 2, 9:5 compared to 4 2 1, 11:6 at home.
IBV’s defense is the second strongest in the league with only KR conceding less and they have never conceded more than two goals in a game. However, they have conceded in last two rounds but since they are steadily scoring they have managed to bring home some points.
IBV know that they can not afford any more slipups if they are to keep in reach of KR. They will have to have a better run in the last rounds of the championship than they have had in the last few years. Last season they won four of last eight but only two of last eight in 2009. With the form KR have been in this won’t do at all.
With their key player, Tryggvi Gudmundsson, on the verge of breaking the all time record of total goals scored in the championship IBV will certainly try to set him up against Breidablik’s poor defense. However, their own defense will also come to the test against Breidablik’s strong attack even though the latter haven’t been scoring too much lately. On top of that, IBV’s defensive tactics seem also to be falling a bit apart.
Head to head
Last three games between the two have been a 1-1 draw. Before that Breidablik won three and IBV one in 2009 and 2008 with two being over and two under 2.5.
The Betting Verdict
For the sake of the home team form at home I have to give Breidablik the edge here. I know that there a lot of difference between the two in the league but the timing of this clash is critical.
Breidablik have to get back on track and with IBV’s defense a little dodgy lately this could well be the time for Breidablik to almost secure their spot in the league. However, Breidablik will undoubtely have to score at least two goals since they can’t asume they will keep a clean sheet. After all they haven’t done so in 14 league games.
With this in mind the value for Breidablik is great. I’m rating them 50% to win but they are on offer at a price as high as 2.75. I find that quite remarkable for a team with a home record of 4 1 2.
Still, I’m not confident enough to recommend taking Breidablik as a main bet but instead I’m going for the overs here.
But with the value in mind I highly recommend getting on Breidablik with a small side bet.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 (Bet365)
Side bet :
I think the bookies are underestimating Breidablik so try Breidablik to win at an excellent 2.75 (Bet365)
