Icelandic Football
2011-08-15 - Valur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Football : Icelandic top league : Round 15
Monday August 15 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
Summer is passing by and the European major leagues are kicking off. Still, the Icelandic championship has around 1/3 yet to be played so there are many more games to choose from for punters following the Icelandic football.
Now we look into a game between two sides from the capital, Reykjavik. One side is still a contender for the title but more slipups means they will have to settle for a European spot. The other side has no hope for the title but might have a faint chance for the European competition.
Valur Reykjavik
After a great run with five victories in a row, Valur have slowed down not winning in last five, drawing four and losing one. This means they are down to 4th place with 25 points, five less than leaders KR Reykjavik who have played two games less. Though it seems that Valur need to have almost a perfect run in the last part of the tournament to have a chance for the title they are very much in the race for a European spot so they still have much to compete for.
After keeping a clean sheet in six of the first nine rounds, conceding only four goals, Valur have conceded in five games in a row, a total of seven goals. This is very worrying for them since their attack hasn’t been the strongest one and their position in the table is much in part due to their very strong defense.
However, their defense has been criticised over the season for being too slow and not beeing able to move forward with the rest of the team. Maybe this fact has been hitting Valur in their head in recent games. On top of that they have been conceding from set pieces, which is strange since they probably have the tallest and strongest defense in the league.
Valur’s overall record is 7 4 3, 20:11, where at home they are 4 2 1, 8:4, and away 3 2 2, 12:7. While still conceding the second least in the league they have only scored the 7th most goals. This fact is due to their trouble with their strikers who haven’t been performing too good this season. Valur make up for that with the strong defense and a very strong midfield.
After disappointing against Grindavik at home, drawing 1-1, in a very boring game where Valur played terribly they came back very strong against IBV Vestamannaeyjar away, where they also drew 1-1, but were very unlucky not to take all three points given how well they played and the chances they created.
Valur will be looking to follow up on that against a shaky Fylkir defense and take advantage of the fact that Fylkir don’t have much to compete for, sitting safely in mid table. Valur have scored in all but one of their home games (didn’t score in the first round) so they should be able to get the ball passed Fylkir and make a serious try for all three points, therefore getting closer to the top place.
Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir’s run this season has been similar to last three years, too unstable meaning they just sit in mid table. Since 2008 they have only two time won three games in a row, once in 2008 and once in 2009. This year they started quite well winning four of first seven and losing only two. Since then Fylkir have only won a single game, drawing three and losing three.
This has lead them into 6th place with 19 points, clear from the relegation zone and too far from the top battle and even the battle for a European spot. Their overall record is 5 4 5, 21:24, and they are similar at home vs away with 2 2 3, 8:12 and 3 2 2, 13:12, respectively.
Fylkir’s scoring has been acceptable, although they aren’t among the highest scoring teams in the league. However, their defense has been too weak and the fact that they have only scored two goals in last two games isn’t good enough unless they are able to improve on their defending.
In last round they visited bottom placed Fram in a game that would probably be voted the most boring match all season (of course ending in a scoreless draw). In the game before that they lost badly at home against IBV, 1-3.
The fact that Fylkir sit so comfortably in mid table could provide to be dangerous for them since there is a big question about their modivation for the games, especially against a strong team like Valur who are still competing in the top flight.
Going up against a very strong and tall defense Fylkir could have a hard time creating chances, but they might be able to sneak in a goal since Valur have been having trouble in keeping a clean sheet lately. This is a factor Fylkir need to use to the furthest since they have only kept a clean sheet two times this season, interestingly enough both times against Fram where the two games resulted in a 0-0 draw.
The Betting Verdict
I wouldn´t go so far as to call this tie a home banker. Valur have been having trouble in their defense and had a really bad game last time at home against Grindavik. However, they showed a completely different performance in the last game against IBV where they should’ve taken all three points.
Fylkir, on the other hand, will almost certainly have to score since their defending isn’t the best in the league and even though Valur aren’t exactly a scoring machine their midfield is very strong and can easily produce excellent chances.
With Valur needing the win so much more than Fylkir I’m predicting a pretty straight forward win for the former.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take Valur Reykjavik to win at a tasty 1.73 (Bet365)
