English Premier
2011-08-15 - Manchester City vs Swansea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Monday 15 August 2011 - Kickoff 8pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester City
Roberto Mancini completed the first of his many promises when he entered the City of Manchester Stadium (Etihad Stadium now) as he took the club into the Champions League for the first time and also made sure THAT banner at the Stretford End was removed as City won their first piece of silverware since 1976.
I think there could have been more of an improvement for City if Mancini released the shackles on his players in some games where his cautious nature meant the team dropped points. The Carlos Tevez situation threatens to disrupt the side as his wish to move away is struggling to be granted, while Mario Balotelli remains an enigma. Mancini signed Sergio Aguero and I expect big things from the diminutive Argentinian, while the transfer of Samir Nasri looks imminent.
A 3rd place finish in the Premier League was no disgrace for the City fans as it meant automatic qualification into the Champions League and they finished just 9 points behind local rivals United. City were very strong at home, finishing with a 13-4-2 record, scoring 34 goals and conceding just 12. That meant they had the joint best home defensive record alongside United.
City won 9 of their last 10 Premier League games at home and they conceded just 5 goals in those games.
Aguero is likely to start on the bench for this game as he reaches full match sharpness, and that will mean Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli could start. Carlos Tevez will not be available as his future remains up in the air.
Swansea
Swansea will know what is awaiting them after seeing Norwich earn a draw in their first game in the top flight and also seeing QPR getting thumped at home by Bolton. Brendan Rodgers has done a fine job at the Liberty Stadium to move Swansea back into the top flight, and he has done it by playing crowd pleasing football.
Rodgers may well have looked at Ian Holloway's Blackpool after the latter came so close to survival in the Premier League without compromising his style of play and I expect 'Swansealona' to try and do it the same way. Scott Sinclair has plenty to prove at this level while it will be interesting to see if Danny Graham can transfer his form up a level after being signed from Watford. Swansea also lost Dorus De Vries, their first choice goalkeeper from last season, when he signed for Wolves on a free transfer.
Swansea came up through the Play Offs after finishing 3rd in the Championship, but they will want to improve on their away form to aid their bid for survival. The Swans finished with a 9-3-11 away record, scoring 28 goals and conceding 31. The team had the most away defeats in the top 8 of the Championship.
The team were unbeaten in their final 3 away games last season, but they had lost 4 consecutive games on their travels before that.
Garry Monk, the captain, looks set to miss the opening game as he is suffering with a foot injury. Michel Vorm, Danny Graham, Leroy Lita and Wayne Routledge are all set to make their competitive debuts.
Head to Head
This is their first meeting since the 1983-84 season.
Prediction
The opening weekend has shown how difficult making predictions can be as Arsenal, Liverpool, Wigan and Fulham all failed to win as favourites.
Interestingly, at the time of writing, we are yet to see a home win and that has not happened in the Premier League years on the opening day- I feel Manchester City will be able to keep that trend going.
City did not play well in the Community Shield game with United last week, but I expect it would have helped a lot in terms of fitness. They proved how good they are at home last season and Roberto Mancini will know his side cannot afford to drop points like these if they are to make a genuine challenge to win the title.
I expect a big season from Edin Dzeko now he has 6 months of English football under his belt, while the defence has improved with the signing of Gael Clichy.
Swansea are likely to employ a passing game and take the attack to their opponents and that will see them take a couple of hammerings, as Blackpool did last season. However, Brendan Rodgers will have faith his side can outplay some of the other teams outside of the top 6 as his key for survival.
The two options I considered here were City to win to nil and City on the Asian Handicap. I have picked the latter as I feel Swansea will give teams chances by trying to play football themselves and I am not sure how their team will react to the quality of top Premier League teams.
It might be touch and go, but I think City can win by a couple of goals and put a marker down for the new season.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester City 2-0 Swansea
