Icelandic Football
2011-08-07 - FH Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 14
Sunday August 7 2011, 19:15 (GMT)
Both teams have had a decent run in rencent games but the difference is that while FH still have a faint chance for the title race, but Keflavik do not.
FH Hafnarfjordur
FH's season is becoming very similar to last season where they had a bad first half while being excellent in the latter part.
After the draw against Fylkir at home in round 11 FH have won the next two games, against Valur at home and Breidablik away. This has meant that FH have now climbed into 4th place with 22 points, 2 points behind Valur and 5 points from leaders KR.
At home FH Hafnarfjordur are excellent and top the home table in the league with a record of 4 2 0, 20:8. That's much better than away where they are 2 2 3, 7:10, and the difference in their goalscoring is quite amazing.
After two very important victories over Valur and Breidablik, FH must welcome this home tie against a side that sits comfortably in mid table.
Having scored the most in the league FH will surely be looking to press Keflavik very much with their fastplay to ensure a win and therefore closing in on the top battle.
However, they might have to be very patient since Keflavik have conceded one of the least in the league and tend to sit back and attack on the fastbreak.
Keflavik
Keflavik is really out of the top battle. Their four losses in rounds 5-8 made sure of that. Since then they have come back and won 3 of last 4 and now sit in 7th place with 17 points, 9 points clear of the relegation zone but 10 points behind leaders KR.
Keflavik's away record is 2 1 3, 9:9, and they are pretty similar at home, 3 1 2, 8:8. Their offense has been improving in recent games and they have scored 7 goals in last 4 games, one more than in the 7 games before that.
This could be important against a FH side that have only conceded one more goal than Keflavik. They should be able to tease FH's slow defenders with their fastbreaks but whether that will be enough is not at all clear.
There is also the question about Keflavik's spirits since they know they are sitting in a secure spot far away from the relegation zone. This will be a matter for their manager to solve.
Head to head
The first game between the two this season at Keflavik went 1-1.
Since 2001 they have met every year exept 2003 in a total of 22 matches. FH have 9 wins and Keflavik 6 while the draw came 7 times. Pretty close there.
FH have not lost at home to Keflavik over the period with 5 wins and 4 draws.
13 of those 22 were over 2.5 goals.
The Betting Verdict
A big factor here could very well be that FH Hafnarfjordur have to win to keep climbing up the table while Keflavik really don't have any solid motivation.
The FH engine, as they are often spoken of, seems to be kicking in and their fighting spirits seem to be showing more strongly, i.e. where they played a man down against Valur but went on scoring 2 goals and winning 3-2.
It's also interesting to see that this season is very alike FH's last season. Then they went on winning 8 of the last 10 and only lost 1. Now they have won last 2 and only lost 1 of last 6.
With this in mind and FH's strength at home they are surely the favorites for this one. There could also be some goals since FH's last 5 of 6 and Keflavik's last 4 of 5 have went over 2.5.
However, the odds for over 2.5 are pretty bad, only around 1.4, so you might have to go for over 3.5.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main bet :Take FH Hafnarfjordur to win @ 1.50 (Victor Chandler)
