MLB Baseball
2011-07-20 - Philadelphia Phillie at Chicago Cubs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: MLB Baseball
Wednesday 20 July 2011 - First Pitch 2:20pm ET
7:20pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This the final of a 3 game series between these teams at the famous Wrigley Field and both teams have won 1 game of the previous 2. The Philadelphia Phillies (60-36) are the favourites to represent the National League this season, but the Chicago Cubs (39-59) are almost certainly going to have to wait at least one more year to break their curse and try and win the World Series.
It looked the Cubs were going to clinch the series win last night when they had a 2 shot lead going into the 9th inning, but the Phillies showed their character in turning things around to record a 4-2 win.
With all their star pitchers in the starting rotation, the Phillies were automatically expected to be contending for the World Series before the season started. While the likes of Roy Halliday and Cliff Lee are doing what is expected, the surprise play of Vance Worley has only increased the Philadelphia options.
Worley is 5-1 this season with a 2.15 ERA this season and the rookie has been even better since being recalled from the Minor Leagues. He is 3-0 in his 5 starts since with a 0.89 ERA and the Phillies have won all of those games.
He has not allowed more than 1 run in any of those recent starts and he has allowed just 2 runs in his last 18 innings pitched on the road. This will be Worley's first start at Wrigley Field.
Chicago can only wish they had the same pitching options as the Phillies. The staff are giving up 5.66 ERA per game in their last 7, and it is no surprise that they have lost 5 of those. The bullpen has particularly been of concern and it was them that let the team down again last night.
Ryan Dempster will go to the mound with his 7-6 record this season and a 4.68 ERA. He has felt much happier in his home stadium where he is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last 7 starts.
The record is really down to the Dempster too, with the offense giving him just 3 or more runs of support once in that time.
Dempster has a 1-1 record against Philadelphia in his career with a 5.61 ERA.
Head to Head
Philadelphia lead the season series 4-2 thanks to their win last night.
Chicago are 8-19 in Game 3's this season, but they have bounced back with a 6-8 record when they have lost Game 2.
Philadelphia are 17-11 in Game 3's, but they are only 8-9 if they win their last game.
Prediction
The Chicago Cubs have not had a great season but they have been holding their own in this series so far. Now they face a tough test against Vance Worley, a pitcher that has been at the top of his game all season and even more so recently.
Ryan Dempster has been much happier in the comfort of Wrigley Field, but he has struggled in the past against Philadelphia.
The game should be close through 7 innings at least, but at that point, the Phillies bullpen is the more stable and that could lead to the win for the road team.
This has been set up as a pick 'em contest at the bookmakers, I just feel Philadelphia are the more likely winners.
The Pick :
Chicago Cubs 2-3 Philadelphia Phillies
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Philadelphia Phillies @ 1.95 (Various)
