Eng. Championship
2011-05-12 - Nottingham Forest vs Swansea City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Championship Play Off Semi Final 1st Leg
Thursday 12 May 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Nottingham Forest
Billy Davies led Derby County up to the Premier League via the Play Offs a couple of seasons ago, but has not had the same luck with Nottingham Forest, while the club themselves look to make it 4th time luck in this lottery at the end of a long season after losing on their 3 previous apperances, including to Blackpool last season.
Forest sneaked into the final Play Off berth with a good run of form to end the season. A poor run during the middle of the campaign ended automatic promotion hopes for the side and they are well aware how important the home game will be in this 2 legged affair with Swansea. They are 13-8-2 at the City Ground this season, scoring 43 goals and conceding 22. Forest were in the top 5 for home goals scored and home goals conceded this season.
The strong run of form that took Forest to the Play Offs saw the Reds win 5 of their last 6 League games, including the last 4 on the bounce. This means they come into the Play Offs with more momentum than last season. Forest have won 3 in a row at the City Ground after a run of 4 games without a win here. The team have scored 17 goals in their last 6 League games.
Lee Camp and Guy Moussi are both available for selection after being taken off in the last game with Crystal Palace as a precaution.
Swansea City
Swansea City fell away towards the back end of last season and missed out on the Play Offs, but they are a real threat this season as they look to reach the top flight for the first time since 1983.
The Swans finished 3rd in the Championship, but were not really in contention for an automatic promotion berth down the stretch with the likes of Cardiff and Norwich ahead of them. Much of their success is based on a defence that has conceded just 42 goals all season, but the team has been a little hit and miss away from home. Swansea are 9-3-11 away from home this season, scoring 28 goals and conceding 31. While only 3 teams had won more away games in the League, there were 13 that had lost less games too.
Swansea won their last 3 League games to finish above their major rivals Cardiff. They are unbeaten in their last 2 away games, keeping clean sheets in both games, but they had lost 4 in a row away from home before that.
Brendan Rodgers has a number of decisions to make in terms of a starting line up with a full squad to choose from.
Head to Head
Nottingham Forest may have had a clear edge mentally in this game as they had beaten Swansea 3 times in a row in recent games. However, Swansea beat Forest 3-2 in their last game at the Liberty Stadium.
Forest have beaten Swansea twice in a row at the City Ground, including a 3-1 win in September, while they are unbeaten in 5 at home against their visitors.
Prediction
This should be an interesting game as the bookmakers are struggling to find a clear favourite in the Play Offs this season. Both teams are clearly much happier playing at home, but Swansea do have the edge in terms of their performances away from home.
Goals have not been a problem for either side in recent weeks and both have plenty of momentum coming into the next couple of weeks.
Picking a winner from this game is incredibly tough, but both teams are on decent scoring form and the 1.85 on offer for both teams to score at Victor Chandler looks appealing enough.
Swansea's tough defence is much more effective at home, while Nottingham Forest have been scoring, and conceding, goals for fun in recent games both at home and away.
The Pick :
Nottingham Forest 2-2 Swansea City
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Victor Chandler (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
