Eng. Championship
2011-05-12 - Nottingham Forest vs Swansea City
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Football : England : nPower Championship
Play Off Semi Final 1st Leg
Thursday 12th May 2011 – Kickoff 7.45pm
The Championship season proper has now drawn to a close and we now enter the crucial play-off phase as the last four teams standing shoot it out to earn that coveted place in England’s top flight.
Thursday night sees the first of the four play-off matches as Nottingham Forest take on Swansea City at the City Ground as Forest seek a valuable lead to take to the Liberty Stadium in the return leg on Monday night.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest's home record in the league stands at a solid 13-8-2 43/22, despite suffering the jitters a few weeks ago where they went winless for four matches at home.
Forest now appear to have overcome that phase and have won their last three at home; 2-0 over Burnley, 3-2 over Leicester City in the east midlands derby and a 5-1 thrashing of doomed Scnthorpe United which sealed their play-off berth.
Attacking midfielder Lewis McGugan (13 goals, 12 assists) has been their stand-out player this season but is backed up by journeyman Robert Earnshaw (8 goals, 3 assists), Chris Cohen (2 goals, 7 assists) and Scottish striker Kris Boyd (6 goals).
The last five meetings between these two sides at the City Ground have ended up with 3 wins in Forest's favour with 2 draws .
Swansea City
As Swansea City make the trip up to Nottingham, I just wonder if they have in the backs of their minds that they may have just blown their chance to return to England's elite after so long in the wilderness, and what might have been had they been more solid away from home.
It's no secret that the Swans have their impressive home record to thank for their play-off place, but their away form has been questionable throughout the season as periods of losses have alternated with periods of straight losses, and appear to be unstable away from the Liberty.
Their away form was 9-3-11 28/31, and despite winning at Millwall 2-0 last game of the season, this was preceded by four straight losses at relegated Scnthorpe United 0-1 & Preston NE 1-2, Derby County 1-2 and Burnley 1-2.
What is also interesting is that Swansea also lost to the other relegated team, Sheffield United 0-1 back in mid-December; is this the stuff that potential Premiership teams are made of I hear you ask?
Scott Sinclair (19 goals) has been their leading player, but I feel Forest will exploit their weaknesses in defence in this one and have the slight edge in terms of home advantage and on the back of a three match winning run on home soil.
The Betting Verdict :
Forest will go for it here and will be looking to take a lead albeit slender to Swansea Monday night. The momentum is with the home side here.
Swansea have to pick themselves up again and put the automatic promotion disappointment behind them – easier said than done and their away form has been patchy to say the least. Forest to win 1-0.
The Pick :
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Swansea
