Scottish League
2011-05-11 - Hearts vs Celtic
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Scottish Premier League
Wednesday 11 May 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Hearts
Hearts would have seen their place sealed in the Europa League for next season when Rangers beat Dundee United on Tuesday evening and now could possibly return the favour by handing Rangers the title if they can beat Celtic. The fans would have been disappointed with the defeat at Rangers on Saturday, but Hearts are a different propositiona at Tynecastle.
The team is going to finish in 3rd spot in the Premier Division in Scotland regardless of how many points they gain from their last 2 League fixtures this season. Hearts have a 9-5-4 record at home this season, scoring 27 goals and conceding 18 and only the two Old Firm clubs have lost less games in front of their own fans. The same two clubs have also conceded fewer goals at home this season.
Hearts have not been in the best of form with only 1 win in their last 10 Premier League games. However, their defeat at Ibrox on Saturday was their first in 7 games since losing to Dundee United. They have only lost 1 of their last 12 home games in the League although they have drawn their last 2 since winning 5 of 6 here.
Marius Zaliukas is likely to return to the side after missing the loss at Rangers. Eggert Jonsson is available after having his red card from the weekend rescinded, but Hearts do have doubts over Andy Webster, Lee Wallace, Jason Thomson and Adrian Mrowiec.
Celtic
Celtic were odds on favourites to win the Scottish Premier Division as recently as 2 weeks ago, but a defeat to Inverness allowed Rangers to sneak ahead and things look bleak for the green half of Glasgow. Neil Lennon was in the press for the wrong reasons again this week, accusing teams of trying harder against Celtic than against Rangers, something that will not adhere him to the opposition any more.
The team are 2nd in the Premier League, a long way clear of 3rd placed Hearts, but significantly find themselves 4 points behind Rangers with 2 games left to play. Celtic do have the edge on goal difference, but it seems unlikely to come into play. They are 13-2-3 away from Parkhead this season, scoring 31 goals and conceding 11. That means Celtic have the best defensive record away from home this season, but Rangers have won more games and scored more goals.
Celtic had picked up 22 points from a possible 24 to take control of the League title before travelling to Inverness and falling to a 3-2 defeat last week. A 0-2 win over Kilmarnock at the weekend kept the pressure on Rangers, but the title looks a long way away with this difficult hurdle to negotiate. Celtic are just 3-1-2 in their last 6 away games in the League, although they have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Anthony Stokes and Georgios Samaras have both returned to the squad after serving suspensions. Emilio Izaguirre has shaken off a knock, but Joe Ledley and Beram Kayal are out for the season.
Head to Head
Celtic have won 4 of the last 5 Premier League games between the sides, but trips to Tynecastle have been particularly troublesome in recent games.
Celtic have won just 1 of their last 4 visits to this part of Edinburgh and have already been beaten 2-1 here earlier this season.
Hearts have won 2 of the last 3 at Tynecastle against Celtic.
Prediction
I feel the bookmakers may have priced this game up on the fact that Celtic NEED to win rather than giving us true value of their chances. That means there must be some sort of edge to backing Hearts here and I believe I may have found it.
The Asian Handicap is giving Hearts a 1.25 goal headstart and that looks too good to pass up. That means half our stake is on Hearts + 1.5 goals and the other half is on Hearts + 1 goal.
If Celtic win by 1 goal, half our stake would be returned with the other half being a winner. Any positive result for Hearts would give us a full payout while a 2 goal Celtic win would mean we unfortunately lose.
A quick look at the head to head will show Hearts have only lost by 2 goals or more to Celtic in 1 of their last 11 home League games against them. Add to this the fact that Hearts have avoided defeat in 6 of those games.
Celtic are under immense pressure here while the home side have nothing to lose. Don't underestimate how much the fans would like to ruin an Old Firm title bid and, after failing at Ibrox, I expect the home support to be totally behind their team.
Hearts will make it tough so the Asian Handicap looks too good to ignore.
The Pick :
Hearts 1-1 Celtic
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Hearts + 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.9 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
