NBA Basketball
2011-05-10 - Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Tuesday 10 May 2011 - Tip-Off 8pm ET
1m (British Standard Time)
Game 5 Eastern Conference Semi Finals
Preview
If the Chicago Bulls (68-23) thought they had caught a break by having to face the Atlanta Hawks (50-42) in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, they dont anymore. The series was once again tied up on Sunday as we head back to Chicago in a best of 3 series.
It looked like the Bulls had recovered from the shock of losing Game 1 as they easily took Games 2 and 3, the latter on the road, but it was a poor 4th Quarter in Game 4 that has allowed the Hawks back into the series.
We have also once again seen that the favourites in a series will not be getting their own way. After struggling with the Pacers in the 1st Round, many expected things to get easier for the Bulls in this Round, but it has been just as tough. The Lakers, Spurs and Magic have already been sent home since the regular season ended last month.
Carlos Boozer had his best game of the Play Offs in Game 4, but it was the outside shooting that let Chicago down. Luol Deng and Kyle Korver were a combined 1-11 from the 3 point range, a key staple of this Offense.
Atlanta, on the other hand, may just have found the winning formula after deciding to attack the rim in the closing minutes of Game 4, a tactic that saw them go on a 16-4 run that cemented the win. Josh Smith was particularly effective although the biggest key to the Hawks remains the play of Jeff Teague.
Teague, who played limited minutes in the series win over Orlando, has been a revelation as the starting Point Guard for the injured Kirk Hinrich and continues to find penetration into the paint. That is helping the likes of Smith, Joe Johnson and Al Horford find open jumpers against a tough Defense like the Bulls.
Head to Head
Chicago now lead the season series 4-3 both staight up and against the spread.
The Bulls are 2-1 both straight up and against the spread at home this season against the Hawks.
Chicago are 26-18-2 against the spread at home this season, Atlanta are 24-22 on the road.
Chicago are 27-14 against the spread with 1 days rest between games, Atlanta are 20-24 on the same rest period.
Other Interesting Notes
The hosts are 52-16 straight up in Game 5 of the Semi Finals. However, they are 31-35-2 against the spread.
If the hosts are favoured by 6 or more points, they are 12-23 against the spread in Game 5.
Chicago are 28-10 against the spread in their last 38 games following an ATS loss.
They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite.
They are 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 Play Off games as the favourite.
Atlanta are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog.
They are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Prediction
I am going to favour the Atlanta Hawks to at least keep this close for the following reasons:
First, recent trends in Game 5's suggest the hosts find it tough to win by wide margins as the pressure increases.
Second, Atlanta have played Chicago tough for much of this series.
Third, Chicago will be looking for the W and their team is not really one that will blowout teams by massive margins unless everything clicks into place.
Fourth, Atlanta have real belief they can achieve something special so I dont expect another dud performance like Game 3.
The Pick :
Chicago Bulls 86-82 Atlanta Hawks
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Atlanta Hawks + 8.5 Points @ 1.95 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
