NBA Basketball
2011-04-25 - Portland at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 25 April 2011 - Tip-Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Game 5 Western Conference 1st Round
Preview
Many would have expected this series to be close as both teams are closely matched, but even the Portland Trail Blazers (50-36) must have felt they were going to go to the Dallas Mavericks (59-27) with elimination on the line... Until Brandon Roy re-emerged and tied the series up 2-2.
Dallas led game 3 by an incredible 23 points with 13 minutes left to play but somehow came away with a loss. The players have been speaking about their frustrations in losing a game in that manner and it is the largest lead lost by a team in the Play Offs during the NBA shot-clock era.
That defeat was thanks in huge part to Brandon Roy, a player that had complained he was almost 'reduced to tears' after not really being asked to come off the bench in the 2 losses in Dallas. Roy stated his worth to the team by adding 18 points in the 4th Quarter to aid the comeback and it was fitting that he scored the winning basket.
Dallas are one of the older teams in the Play Offs and will not have been too happy that they cannot wrap the series up here in Dallas tonight and get a few days of well deserved rest. Now they will have to at least travel one more time to Portland and possibly have to compete in a Game 7.
Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace have both been talking up Game 5 as the pivotal one in the series believing they now have the momentum after the comeback of Game 4 and could possibly set themselves up to complete a 4 consecutive game sweep in Portland and progress to the Semi Finals.
Both teams have had tough recent years in the Play Offs and that pressure could take an additional toll. Dallas have been considered 'chokers' after blowing Play Off series leads, while Portland have not won a series since 2000.
Head to Head
The teams have met 8 times this season and have split the games 4-4 with both teams winning all 4 games at home. This gives Dallas an edge when it comes to this series if it does go 7 games.
Dallas are 4-0 against the spread in the series, while they are 3-1 in games played at home between the teams this season. The Mavericks have won their last 3 at home against the spread against Portland.
Dallas are 21-20-2 against the spread at home this season, Portland are 19-21-3 on the road.
Dallas are 24-20-2 against the spread when having 1 days rest between games, Portland are 23-21-1 on the same period.
Other Interesting Notes
Dallas have won their last 6 games against the spread when considered the favourite.
They have won their last 8 games against the spread against teams from the Western Conference.
The Mavericks are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Portland are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog.
They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Dallas Mavericks to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, if the players can remember and focus, they dominated the first 3 Quarters of their last game with Portland and should have won.
Second, Dallas have dominated Portland at home this season and in the first 2 Play Off games.
Third, Portland have not been as effective on the road as they are in the Rose Garden.
Fourth, while Portland have the momentum in this game from their comeback, there is the danger they are a little flat too after putting in a huge emotional effort just 2 days ago.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 94-87 Portland Trail Blazers
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Dallas Mavericks -4.5 Points @ 1.95 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
