English Premier
2011-04-23 - Liverpool vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 23 April 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Liverpool
The Kenny Dalglish revolution took a further step forward as the young Liverpool side he deployed at the Emirates Stadium last weekend completely deserved to come away without losing the game, even if the equaliser came deep into injury time. The Scot is very likely to take the job on a permanent basis over the Summer, although that issue is likely to be left until after the season is completed.
While Liverpool got a vital point last week, it remains unlikely that they will be playing European football next season. The Reds are 6th in the Premier League, but are 5 points behind Tottenham in the final European place having played a game more. Liverpool remain a tough proposition at Anfield where they are 10-4-2 this season, scoring 29 goals and conceding 12.
The point gained at Arsenal means Dalglish has overseen wins over Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and drawn with the Gunners since he took over in January. They have lost just 1 of their last 6 League games and have scored in every League game since the removal of Roy Hodgson. Liverpool are unbeaten in 7 League games at Anfield, winning 5 of those games.
Liverpool are still missing several senior players like Glen Johnson, Dan Agger and Steven Gerrard, while Fabio Aurelio and Martin Kelly are also sidelined. This means the likes of John Flanagan and Jack Robinson will be lining up in the back 4. Andy Carroll is a doubt after suffering a knock against Arsenal, but both he and Jamie Carragher should be in the line up.
Birmingham City
Birmingham City made the worst start possible in their game with Chelsea during the week and ended up being beaten fairly easily. Alex McCleish's men remain in a relegation dogfight and they have some tough fixtures to negotiate to end this season.
The Blues are 15th in the Premier League table, but hold a 5 point lead over Blackpool in the final relegation place. However, they will be aware that they are still around 4 points short of guaranteeing survival. Many will expect Birmingham to survive on their form at St Andrews as they are only 2-7-7 away from home, scoring 16 goals and conceding 27.
They had been unbeaten in 3 Premier League games, winning 2 of them, before losing at Chelsea last time out. That means they have failed to win any of their last 4 away League games, although earning vital draws in 2 of those in that period. Birmingham have scored in their last 5 away from home and have only lost 1 of those games.
There are no new injury concerns for Alex McCleish to worry about. He also managed to give Alexander Hleb and Cameron Jerome a little extra rest by bringing them off after Chelsea had scored their third goal.
Head to Head
How about this for a statistic: The last 7 Premier League games between the sides have ended in draws!!
Liverpool have actually won just 1 of their 6 Premier League games at Anfield against Birmingham, and have failed to win any of the last 4.
The Reds had to score a 2nd half equaliser last season to end the game 2-2.
Prediction
Liverpool played very well last week at the Emirates but much of their good work was done from a defensive point of view and there is a different expectation for the side against a team they should beat.
The wins over Manchester City and Manchester United in their last 2 League games at Anfield makes it seem like the bookies have got the 1.5 quotes all wrong... I really tend to agree, but perhaps not why you are thinking!
Liverpool nicked a 1-0 over Fulham here, and have also been held by Everton and Wigan, all during 'King Kenny's' 2nd reign as manager. Wolves, Blackpool and Sunderland are all other sides that have come to Anfield this season and left with a point or more and I begin to wonder if they 'get up' for the big games and tend to relax a little too much for the games they are expected to win.
Birmingham will prove tough and dogged and have been scoring goals of late so could cause plenty of problems for those that are backing at extremely short odds. They also defend well and have been proven as a tough nut to crack away from home in recent games.
A point at an in-form Everton suggests they can do the same here.
Furthering that thought is the run of 7 League games at home and away that have ended in draws between the sides. Birmingham have 4 draws from 6 visits to Anfield and only 1 defeat, and I really think they can avoid defeat again.
A point will be very welcome at St Andrews, and I think the value and statistics point to the fact they can get it. It may look a silly pick come 5pm on Saturday afternoon, but Liverpool are being vastly overrated here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 1-1 Birmingham City
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the DRAW @ 4.5 (1 UNIT)Follow me on Twitter- the direct link is below
