English Premier
2011-04-23 - Liverpool vs Birmingham
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 23rd April 2011 - Kickoff 3:00pm
Liverpool
Last 5 Liverpool games at home : W4-D1-L0 F10-A2
Resurgent Liverpool continue to build momentum and finish the season strong, King Kenny has transformed the side and quickly taken the Merseysiders up the league table.
Currently sitting in 6th place, Liverpool has 49 points and trails 5th placed Spurs by just 5 points and with 5 games to go a Europa League place is not entirely out of the question. However, to catch and ultimately overtake Tottenham the reds need to win virtually all of their games this year and this starts with Birmingham at Anfield on Saturday.
Only league leaders United are more in form than Liverpool when looking at the last 5 home games table. The Reds have 4 wins and a draw with the wins against Man City (3-0), Man United (3-1), Stoke (2-0) and Fulham (1-0) with the two Manchester wins being the last 2 home games. These two huge wins will give the side massive confidence for the visit of Birmingham and after then drawing at the Emirates last time out the Reds are a very dangerous side to face right now.
The new partnership of Carroll and Suarez is a frightening one for defences across the country, despite Carroll not being fully fit following his injury layoff and the Uruguayan not familiar with the flow of play in the Premiership already the two of them have 2 goals each and a solid understanding together. Both should play on Saturday in an attacking 4-4-2 that has been so successful for the reds of late after Kenny started out with a 3-5-2 formation.
Team news is that Liverpool has an injury headache ahead of this game. Agger, Aurelio, Gerrard, Kelly and Johnson are all out but there are also doubts for Carragher and Carroll. It means that Dalglish has a headache with this defence with a potential back four of Flanagan, Kyrgiakos, Skrtel and Robinson which is very average indeed.
That may sound harsh given how well Flanagan and Robinson played against Arsenal but both are incredibly inexperienced and Kyrgiakos is hardly a reliable centre back himself. Of the four I only have real faith in Skrtel but he can’t do it alone! Carragher suffered concussion against Arsenal and whilst Dalglish hasn’t said Carragher is out it looks unlikely that he will make it at this stage.
Unfortunately for Liverpool Carroll jarred his knee at the Emirates and should he not recover in time I imagine Kuyt will play more central with Suarez, however unlike Carragher for now the reports are positive and the striker should start.
Predicted Liverpool Lineup:
Reina, Flanagan, Kyrgiakos, Skrtel, Robinson, Lucas, Spearing, Meireles, Kuyt, Suarez, Carroll.
Birmingham
Last 5 B’ham games away : W1-D2-L2 F5-A7
Alex McLeish’s Birmingham side has had a great season in terms of silverware after they stunned big favourites Arsenal in the Carling Cup final. However, since then the club has just stooped deeper and deeper into the relegation mix and right now the Blues occupy 15th place but with 38 points they remain just 5 points above the relegation zone. The manager has said one more win is needed to be safe and they look for that win on Saturday when they visit Liverpool.
I was at the game midweek to see Birmingham take on Chelsea and they looked very poor, fair enough Chelsea away is a tough game but Liverpool away is even harder just a few days after playing the Champions away.
Birmingham as per every season seem to struggle with goals, just 34 goals have been scored by the Blues which is the worst in the league and had it not been for their decent defence (just 46 conceded) which ranks with the top half of the table sides they would definitely be in the bottom 3. At the Bridge midweek they did catch Chelsea out a few times with some direct play in behind Terry and Luiz as Chelsea applied a high defensive live. If Liverpool does the same B’ham may get some success however given the lack of pace of Kyrgiakos and the inexperience of the full backs a deeper line is more likely to be employed.
The last 3 wins for Birmingham have come at home with the last away win back in early February at West Ham. That trip to Upton Park was 10 games ago and since then just two draws at lowly Blackburn (1-1) and Everton (1-1) have brought any away joy and they even lost to at the time bottom of the league Wigan at the JJB. This trip to Anfield after Liverpool had the midweek off to rest doesn’t look good for the Brummies and it’s going to take a real effort to come away from the game with any points.
Team news is that Dann, McFadden, Valles, Martins and Jiranek are all out with Martin Taylor and Zigic doubts. McLeish made a couple of changes for the Chelsea game restoring Hleb and Fahey to the side dropping Bowyer and Phillips which didn’t really work. As a result I expect a similar 4-5-1 system but Bowyer coming in for Phillips with Jerome having to do the donkey work up front.
Predicted Blues Lineup:
Foster, Carr, Johnson, Ridgewell, Parnaby, Fahey, Larsson, Gardner, Ferguson, Bowyer, Jerome.
The Betting Verdict
With 1 win needed to stay up according to the manager Birmingham has much easier games in the next few weeks compared to Liverpool away. The Blues face Wolves and Fulham at home and I think they will approach this game with a don’t lose mentality. A point here at Anfield would be great and if they don’t concede early they have the defensive and midfield players to frustrate Liverpool.
Liverpool have nothing to lose and will just attack, the side is full of confidence under Kenny and I envisage a very tight game with the Reds parked in the Birmingham half for most of the game. I don’t see a big or easy win for Liverpool one goal may just be enough and if the Blues can frustrate 1-0 seems a likely score. However if B’ham start as they did at Chelsea this could get ugly but I’m going keep the faith in McLeish’s men.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 1-0 Birmingham
BEST BETTING TIP :
Liverpool at 1.50 to win is no use to me, I prefer either:Take Liverpool win by 1 goal at 3.80 at Bet365 (main bet)
or Birmingham +1.25 AH @ 2.10 Pinnaclesports
