ROMANIAN LEAGUE BETTING PICK - UNIREA URZICENI V OTELUL GALATI

Romanian League

2011-04-09 - Unirea Urziceni vs Otelul Galati

A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt

Unirea Urziceni v Otelul Galati
Football: Romanian Liga 1
Venue: Tineretului stadium, Urziceni
Saturday 9th April 2010 – Kickoff time: 15:00 GMT+2

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Unirea Urziceni (17th W-4 D-7 L-13)

Yes, Unirea Urziceni is the team that won the championship in 2009 and played in the Uefa Champions League group stage, accumulating 8 points (victories against Seville and Rangers) and is now struggling to remain in the first league.

Unirea will probably fail to do so, because they are 7 points behind the first safe place and they haven’t won a match since November. The only team that sits below them on the table is Sportul Studentesc.

Urziceni lost their previous match to 5-0 in Ghencea, coach Marian Pana saying that he knew his team can’t get a positive result, so he rested his best players (typical Romanian mentality). He said that they’ll have more chances against Otelul and is better for them to concentrate on home games.

They do have a decent home record (4W-4D-4L), but that won’t be enough to escape relegation since they only won 3 points from away games.

Urziceni’s home form:
21.03.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 22 Unirea Urziceni 1 - 1 FC Brasov
04.03.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 20 Unirea Urziceni 0 - 1 FCM Târgu-Mureş
06.12.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 18 Unirea Urziceni 1 - 1 Pandurii Tg. Jiu
26.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 17 Unirea Urziceni 2 - 1 Sportul Studentesc
13.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 15 Unirea Urziceni 1 - 1 FC Timisoara

Otelul Galati (1st W-15 D-4 L-5)

Otelul is losing ground and they were lucky not to lose their first position in the midweek. The game against Vaslui (3rd) didn’t offer the quality that one would have expected from a match against the first and third positions, both teams being more concerned about not losing.

It can be said that Otelul lost two points because they played at home, but maybe coach Dorinel Munteanu would have preferred not to lose Gabriel Paraschiv – who suffered a quite serious injury – and lose the game instead.

Otelul started to show signs of weakness on the road, losing their previous two games (against Targu-Mures and Brasov) without scoring a goal.

The “Steelers” have a tough schedule in front of them with games against Steaua and Dinamo, so they need to win this one in order to keep their chances alive. Any other result than a draw could mean losing the first place, because Timisoara (who is 1 point behind) will play against bottom-placed Sportul.

Otelul will be without Milan Perendija and Liviu Antal, both being suspended.

Otelul’s away form:
01.04.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 23 FC Brasov 1 - 0 Otelul Galati
12.03.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 21 FCM Târgu-Mureş 1 - 0 Otelul Galati
25.02.2011 Liga 1 Etapa 19 Pandurii Tg. Jiu 0 - 3 Otelul Galati
21.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 16 FC Timisoara 2 - 0 Otelul Galati
05.11.2010 Liga 1 Etapa 14 U Craiova 0 - 1 Otelul Galati

The Betting Verdict

No one thinks that a small club like Otelul Galati can win the championship and it may be true, because the pressure really seems to have a negative effect on them as they only won once in their previous 4 games.

On the other hand, Urziceni only lost once in their previous 5 home games, but I’m not sure they believe in avoiding relegation, having a 7 points deficit and playing like they do.

Urziceni has some players that are on-loan from Timisoara and Steaua, both teams having the interest to stop Otelul from winning games, so we might see more determination in this game coming from Unirea.

If Liga 1 were included in the spreadsheet, the value for the away win would have been somewhere below 80%, so I recommend taking under 2.5 goals instead, as all facts lead to a low scoring game.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Main bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.53 Victor Chandler
Confidence: 9/10

Side bet: Under 1.5 goals at 2.50 Victor Chandler
Confidence: 5/10