NBA Basketball
2011-02-25 - Denver Nuggets at Portland
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 25 February 2011 - Tip-Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is one of those games that could have crucial Play Off implications in April as the Portland Trail Blazers (32-25) take on the Denver Nuggets (34-25) at the Rose Garden.
Both teams have revamped their squads just before the trade deadline, Denver out of necessity and Portland to give themselves a better chance of having an impact in the Play Offs.
I am sure we have all read everything there is to read about the deal that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York, while the Nuggets retained the services of Gallinari, Felton, Mozgov and Chandler. The 4 new boys were all in uniform as the Nuggets outscored the Celtics in the final Quarter to win their 2nd game since the trade was executed- who needs Melo and Billups after all?!!
Portland themselves were busy making what, to me anyway, looks like being a really good trade and bringing in Gerald Wallace from the Charlotte Bobcats. Wallace is averaging 15.6 points and 8.2 rebounds a game this season while with the Bobcats and his presence in the line up is sure to assist LaMarcus Aldridge who continues playing at a high level.
Aldridge has averaged 33.2 points per game in his last 6 games for the Trail Blazers, but missed a couple of free throws in the game against the Lakers which essentially iced the win for the defending Champions. On a brighter note, Brandon Roy came through the game after returning from knee problems. Roy will be kept out tonight as the Trail Blazers do not want to lose him again and he will be kept out of back to back games.
The Nuggets will have been satisfied with Wilson Chandler's contribution off the bench for them last night against Boston while Ray Felton and Ty Lawson shared time at the Point. It was essentially the Denver defense that won the game for the team, and was only the 3rd time in 16 games that Denver have won a game without breaking 100 points as a team.
Only 1 game currently separates these teams in the Play Off picture in the West.
Head to Head
The home team has been dominating this series in recent games, winning the last 6 straight up and also going 10-1 against the spread in the last 11 games.
The team being favoured is also 10-1 against the spread in that stretch.
Denver currently leads the season series 2-1.
Portland are 15-12 against the spread at home this season, Denver are 12-15-1 on the road.
Portland are 16-14 against the spread with 1 days rest between games, Denver are 5-9 on back to back nights play.
Other Interesting Notes
Portland are only 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a loss.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games being favoured by between 5 and 10 points.
Denver are 14-31-6 against the spread in their last 51 games following an against the spread win.
They are 4-15-3 against the spread in their last 22 games against teams with winning records at home greater than 60%.
The Nuggets are 8-17-3 against the spread in their last 28 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
It is clear the Denver Nuggets are playing more as a team since the long awaited departure of Carmelo Anthony, but I still favour Portland here to win and cover the spread:
Portland have come off an emotional loss to the Lakers in a game they should actually have won. However, they wont suffer a letdown against a team they are rivalling directly in the race for a Play Off berth and seedings.
The Rose Garden is an extremely tough venue to come into, especially with the record Denver have had here in recent games. Portland have also knocked off New Orleans, Chicago and San Antonio here in recent games, while losses to the Lakers should have been wins.
Denver had an emotional win last night when they shut down the Celtics in the 2nd half. It will be hard to energise themselves for this game after flying in this morning.
LaMarcus Aldridge is playing at an extremely high level at the moment, and I dont believe Denver have the Offensive schemes to keep up with him in what could be a high scoring game.
The Pick :
Portland Trail Blazers 103-90 Denver Nuggets
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
