NBA Basketball
2011-02-25 - Oklahoma City at Orlando Magic
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 25 February 2011 - Tip-Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The trade rumblings around the NBA are finally over until after the Finals now, and Oklahoma City Thunder (36-20) must be happy with the business they did, bringing in Kendrick Perkins from the Boston Celtics which now makes them a viable threat in the West to the likes of San Antonio and the LA Lakers. The Orlando Magic (36-22) also remain a real threat in the East, but they have not been in the best of form lately and need to improve if they are to hang with Boston, Miami and Chicago.
Perkins was expected to be out for the whole week according to Boston, but rumours swell that he will be in the line up tonight alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Nate Robinson was also brought in by Oklahoma City from Boston and will be a back up.
Durant continues to play to an extremely high level and looks the best young talent in the West, a Conference that has lost a number of significant talent this week to the East. Durant continues to lead the NBA in scoring with 28.1 points per game.
It is clear the Thunder is looking to improve defensively as they are allowing an average of over 100 points per game this season, a year removed from being one of the tougher defensive teams in the NBA. The arrival of Perkins is sure to help on that front as the Thunder look to rumble on after a close loss to San Antonio last time out.
While things are looking up in Oklahoma City, Orlando come into this game off the embarrassing home loss to the Sacramento Kings, a team that had been blown out by 20 + points in Miami the night before. That means the Magic are 7-7 straight up in their last 14 games and Dwight Howard has once again called his teammates out through his frustration.
Howard, who is a free agent at the end of next season, is disappointed with the overall effort of Orlando in recent games. He himself is averaging 31.3 points and 13.3 rebounds in his last 3 games but feels the team is picking and choosing who to turn the afterburners on against.
Head to Head
It has been almost 7 years since Oklahoma City have won in Orlando, and even that came in their previous life as the Seattle Supersonics.
However, the teams have split the last 4 games here in Florida against the spread.
Orlando are 15-15 against the spread at home this season, Oklahoma City are 14-14 on the road.
Orlando are 15-16-1 against the spread on 1 days rest this season, Oklahoma City are 16-15 on the same period of rest.
Other Interesting Notes
Orlando are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the favourite.
They are 4-1 against the spread at home against a team with a winning record on the road.
However, the Magice are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against teams with overall winning records.
Oklahoma City are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10 points.
They are 25-11 against the spread in their last 36 games against a team with a winning record at home of greater than 60%.
They are also 37-16 against the spread in their last 53 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I think the point spread has been made larger than it should be because of a couple of reasons:
Oklahoma City may not have won here in Orlando in recent years, but they have kept games competitive and have not come in with a better team than they have now.
There is a concern that this could be a letdown game for the Thunder after losing a close one at San Antonio and with the Lakers next on the schedule. However, the team is young and hungry and I feel they will continue playing at their level to maintain some momentum before the Lakers come to town.
Orlando have been struggling recently, interchanging horrible losses with good wins. It perhaps is asking a lot of Orlando to clear the points against a really good team when they are 7-7 in their last 14 games.
The team seems to be more of a unit in Oklahoma City at the moment while the Magic are still trying to come to terms with the way they are expected to play after the number of trades made earlier this season.
I have to back the Oklahoma City Thunder here to keep this game at least close and will take the 7 points on offer.
The Pick :
Orlando Magic 104-105 Oklahoma City Thunder
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Oklahoma City Thunder + 7 Points @ 1.95 (2 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
